Statistics and Computing

, Volume 27, Issue 6, pp 1617–1637 | Cite as

Segmental dynamic factor analysis for time series of curves

  • Allou Samé
  • Gérard Govaert


A new approach is introduced in this article for describing and visualizing time series of curves, where each curve has the particularity of being subject to changes in regime. For this purpose, the curves are represented by a regression model including a latent segmentation, and their temporal evolution is modeled through a Gaussian random walk over low-dimensional factors of the regression coefficients. The resulting model is nothing else than a particular state-space model involving discrete and continuous latent variables, whose parameters are estimated across a sequence of curves through a dedicated variational Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The experimental study conducted on simulated data and real time series of curves has shown encouraging results in terms of visualization of their temporal evolution and forecasting.


Functional time series Visualization and forecasting Mixture of regressions Dynamic factor analysis Variational EM Condition monitoring 



The authors wish to thank M. Marc Antoni of SNCF for the data he provided and for the support provided.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Université Paris-Est, IFSTTAR, COSYS, GRETTIAMarne-la-ValléeFrance
  2. 2.Laboratoire Heudiasyc, UMR CNRS 7253Université de Technologie de CompiègneCompiègneFrance

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