Space Science Reviews

, Volume 125, Issue 1–4, pp 199–211 | Cite as

Detection and attribution of climate change, and understanding solar influence on climate

Article

Abstract

The detection of externally-forced climate change in observations, and its attribution to specific forcings, sounds simple enough to some people, but with others it has a reputation as a complex and arcane specialism. In fact, both these impressions have some truth - in principle it is no more than regressing expected patterns of climate change (normally obtained from GCM sim-ulations forced with observed or reconstructed past forcings) against the corresponding observa-tions, with uncertainty estimates that try to be as rigorous as possible, but there are many technical complexities.

This survey begins with some motivating examples, and then summarizes the principles, problems and procedure without formal mathematics, before surveying results with an emphasis on possible solar effects, and why they are particularly problematic.

Keywords

climate change detection and attribution solar 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
  2. 2.Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchMeteorological OfficeExeter, DevonUK

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