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Statistical Properties of Extreme Solar Activity Intervals

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A study of long-term solar variability reflected in indirect indices of past solar activity leads to stimulating results. We compare the statistics of intervals of very low and very high solar activity derived from two cosmogenic radionuclide records and look for consistency in their timing and physical interpretation. According to the applied criteria, the numbers of minima and of maxima are 61 and 68, respectively, from the 10Be record, and 42 and 46 from the 14C record. The difference between the enhanced and depressed states of solar activity becomes apparent in the difference in their statistical distributions. We find no correlation between the level or type (minimum or maximum) of an extremum and the level or type of the predecessor. The hypothesis of solar activity as a periodic process on the millennial time scale is not supported by the existing proxies. A new homogeneous series of 10Be measurements in polar ice covering the Holocene would be of great value for eliminating the existing discrepancy in the available solar activity reconstructions.

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The authors are grateful to Prof. Dr. J. Beer for the 10Be GRIP ice-core data and to the anonymous referee for useful questions and comments. This work was partly supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of Russian Federation through the contract 11.G34.31.0001 with St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University and G.G. Pavlov.

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Correspondence to A. V. Blinov.

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Lioznova, A.V., Blinov, A.V. Statistical Properties of Extreme Solar Activity Intervals. Sol Phys 289, 221–232 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-013-0343-3

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  • Cosmogenic radionuclide records
  • Long-term solar variability
  • Solar activity cycle