Estimating Travel Times of Coronal Mass Ejections to 1 AU Using Multi-spacecraft Coronagraph Data
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We study the relationship between the speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) obtained close to the Sun and in the interplanetary medium during the low solar-activity period from 2008 to 2010. We use a multi-spacecraft forward-modeling technique to fit a flux-rope-like model to white-light coronagraph images from the STEREO and SOHO spacecraft to estimate the geometrical configuration, propagation in three-dimensions (3D), and the radial speeds of the observed CMEs. The 3D speeds obtained in this way are used in existing CME travel-time prediction models. The results are compared to the actual CME transit times from the Sun to STEREO, ACE, and Wind spacecraft as well as to the transit times calculated using projected CME speeds. CME 3D speeds give slightly better predictions than projected CME speeds, but a large scatter is observed between the predicted and observed travel times, even when 3D speeds are used. We estimate the possible sources of errors and find a weak tendency for large interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) with high magnetic fields to arrive faster than predicted and small, low-magnetic-field ICMEs to arrive later than predicted. The observed CME transit times from the Sun to 1 AU show a particularly good correlation with the upstream solar-wind speed. Similar trends have not been observed in previous studies using data sets near solar maximum. We suggest that near solar minimum a relatively narrow range of CME initial speeds, sizes, and magnetic-field magnitudes led to a situation where aerodynamic drag between CMEs and ambient solar wind was the primary cause of variations in CME arrival times from the Sun to 1 AU.
KeywordsCoronal mass ejections Interplanetary coronal mass ejections Space weather Coronagraph observations Corona
STEREO suprathermal electron pitch-angle distributions were achieved through the CESR SWEA server. We thank Andrea Opitz for validating the STEREO pitch-angle distributions. The LASCO CME catalog is generated and maintained at the CDAW Data Center by NASA and The Catholic University of America in cooperation with the Naval Research Laboratory. SOHO is a project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA. STEREO magnetic-field and plasma data were accessed through the UCLA Space Physics Center. Academy of Finland projects 130298 and 1218152 are thanked for their financial support. Marilena Mierla acknowledges the financial support from the project TE 73/11.08.2010 and from ROB. The authors thank the STEREO/SECCHI consortium for providing the data. The SECCHI data used here were produced by an international consortium of the Naval Research Laboratory (USA), Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Lab (USA), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (USA), Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (UK), University of Birmingham (UK), Max-Planck-Institut for Solar System Research (Germany), Centre Spatiale de Liège (Belgium), Institut d’Optique Theorique et Appliquée (France), and Institut d’Astrophysique Spatiale (France). The work by Nandita Srivastava and Luciano Rodriguez partially contributes to the research for the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007 – 2013) under grant agreement number 263252 [COMESEP]. Luciano Rodriguez and Matthew West acknowledge support from the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office through the ESA-PRODEX program.
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