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Solar Physics

, 272:189 | Cite as

Online Multi-step Ahead Prediction of Time-Varying Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Indices via Adaptive Neurofuzzy Modeling and Recursive Spectral Analysis

  • Masoud Mirmomeni
  • Caro Lucas
  • Babak Nadjar Araabi
  • Behzad Moshiri
  • Mohammad Reza Bidar
Article

Abstract

The time-varying Sun as the main source of space weather affects the Earth’s magnetosphere by emitting hot magnetized plasma in the form of solar wind into interplanetary space. Solar and geomagnetic activity indices and their chaotic characteristics vary abruptly during solar and geomagnetic storms. This variation depicts the difficulties in modeling and long-term prediction of solar and geomagnetic storms. On the other hand, the combination of neurofuzzy models and spectral analysis has been a subject of interest due to their many practical applications in modeling and predicting complex phenomena. However, these approaches should be trained by algorithms that need to be carried out by an offline data set, which influences their performance in online modeling and prediction of time-varying phenomena. This paper proposes an adaptive approach for multi-step ahead prediction of space weather indices by extending the regular singular spectrum analysis and locally linear neurofuzzy models to adaptive approaches. The combination of these recursive approaches fulfills requirements of long-term prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity indices. The results demonstrate the power of the proposed method in online prediction of space weather indices.

Keywords

Space weather Geomagnetic disturbance Multi-step ahead prediction Adaptive neurofuzzy models Recursive spectral analysis 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Masoud Mirmomeni
    • 1
    • 2
  • Caro Lucas
    • 1
    • 3
  • Babak Nadjar Araabi
    • 1
    • 3
  • Behzad Moshiri
    • 1
  • Mohammad Reza Bidar
    • 4
  1. 1.Control and Intelligent Processing Center of Excellence, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University College of EngineeringUniversity of TehranTehranIran
  2. 2.Computer Science and Engineering DepartmentMichigan State UniversityEast LansingUSA
  3. 3.School of Cognitive SciencesInstitute for Studies in Theoretical Physics and MathematicsTehranIran
  4. 4.Department of MathematicsSharif University of TechnologyTehranIran

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