Solar Physics

, Volume 250, Issue 1, pp 199–206 | Cite as

Can the Solar Cycle Amplitude Be Predicted Using the Preceding Solar Cycle Length?

  • José M. VaqueroEmail author
  • Ricardo M. Trigo


In this work, the evolution of the relationship between Solar Cycle Length of solar cycle n (SCL n ) and Solar Cycle Amplitude of the solar cycle n+1 (SCA n+1) is studied by using the R Z and R G sunspot numbers. We conclude that this relationship is only strongly significant in a statistical sense during the first half of the historical record of R Z sunspot number whereas it is considerably less significant for the R G sunspot number. In this sense we assert that these simple lagged relationships should be avoided as a valid method to predict the following solar activity amplitude.


Solar Activity Solar Cycle Solar Phys Sunspot Number Group Sunspot 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Baker, D.N.: 2000, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 62, 1669. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  2. Benestad, R.E.: 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L15714. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  3. Chernosky, E.J.: 1954, Publ. Astron. Soc. Pac. 66, 241. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  4. Clette, F., Berghmans, D., Vanlommel, P., Van der Linden, R.A.M., Koeckelenbergh, A., Wauters, L.: 2007, Adv. Space Res. 40, 919. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  5. Damon, P.E., Laut, P.: 2004, Eos Trans. AGU 85, 370. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  6. Dikpati, M., de Toma, G., Gilman, P.A.: 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L05102. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Dikpati, M., Gilman, P.A., de Toma, G.: 2008, Astrophys. J. 673, L99. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  8. Friis-Christensen, E., Lassen, K.: 1991, Science 254, 698. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  9. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M.: 2005, Solar Phys. 224, 5. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  10. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M.: 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett 33, L18101. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  11. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M., Reichmann, E.J.: 1994, Solar Phys. 151, 177. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  12. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M., Reichmann, E.J.: 2002, Solar Phys. 211, 357. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  13. Hoyt, D.V., Schatten, K.H.: 1998a, Solar Phys. 179, 189. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  14. Hoyt, D.V., Schatten, K.H.: 1998b, Solar Phys. 181, 491. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  15. Joselyn, J.A., Anderson, J.B., Coffey, H., Harvey, K., Hathaway, D., Heckman, G.: et al.: 1997, Eos. Trans. AGU 78, 205. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  16. Kane, R.P.: 2007, Solar Phys. 243, 205. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  17. Kane, R.P.: 2008, Solar Phys. 248, 203. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  18. Krivova, N.A., Solanki, S.K., Beer, J.: 2002, Astron. Astrophys. 396, 235. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  19. Laut, P.: 2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 65, 801. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  20. Mursula, K., Ulich, Th.: 1998, Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 1837. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  21. Obridko, V.N., Oraevsky, V.N., Allen, J.H.: 1994. In: Baker, D.N., Papitashvilli, V.O. (eds.) Solar-Terrestrial Energy Program: The Initial Results from STEP Facilities and Theory Campaigns, COSPAR Colloq. 5, Pergamon Press, Oxford. Google Scholar
  22. Schatten, K.: 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L21106. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  23. Solanki, S.K., Krivova, N.A., Schüssler, M., Fligge, M.: 2002, Astron. Astrophys. 396, 1029. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  24. Svalgaard, L., Cliver, E.W., Kamide, Y.: 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32. Google Scholar
  25. Usoskin, I.G., Kovaltsov, G.A.: 2004, Solar Phys. 224, 37. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  26. Usoskin, I.G., Mursula, K., Kovaltsov, G.A.: 2001, Astron. Astrophys. 370, L31. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  27. Usoskin, I.G., Mursula, K., Kovaltsov, G.A.: 2002, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 36. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Usoskin, I.G., Mursula, K., Kovaltsov, G.A.: 2003, Astron. Astrophys. 403, 743. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  29. Vaquero, J.M.: 2004, Solar Phys. 219, 379. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  30. Vaquero, J.M.: 2007, Adv. Space Res. 40, 929. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  31. Vaquero, J.M., Trigo, R.M., Gallego, M.C.: 2005, Astron. Nachr. 326, 112. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  32. Vaquero, J.M., García, J.A., Gallego, M.C.: 2006, Solar Phys. 235, 433. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  33. Vaquero, J.M., Gallego, M.C., Sánchez-Bajo, F.: 2007, Observatory 127, 221. ADSGoogle Scholar
  34. Vaquero, J.M., Trigo, R.M., Gallego, M.C., Moreno-Corral, M.A.: 2007, Solar Phys. 240, 165. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  35. Wilson, R.M., Hathaway, D.H., Reichmann, E.J.: 1996, On the importance of cycle minimum in sunspot cycle prediction, NASA Technical Paper NASA-TP-3648. Google Scholar
  36. Wu, J.-G., Eliasson, L., Lundstedt, H., Hilgers, A., Andersson, L., Norberg, O.: 2000, Adv. Space Res. 26, 31. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Departamento de Física Aplicada, Escuela PolitécnicaUniversidad de ExtremaduraCáceresSpain
  2. 2.Centro de Geofísica da Universidade de LisboaInstituto Geofísico do Infante D. LuizLisbonPortugal
  3. 3.Departamento de Enghenharias e Ciências NaturaisUniversidade LusófonaLisbonPortugal

Personalised recommendations