Advertisement

Solar Physics

, Volume 250, Issue 1, pp 171–181 | Cite as

A Prediction of Solar Cycle 24 Using a Modified Precursor Method

  • R. S. DabasEmail author
  • Kavita Sharma
  • Rupesh M. Das
  • K. G. M. Pillai
  • Parvati Chopra
  • N. K. Sethi
Article

Abstract

Based on cycles 17 – 23, linear correlations are obtained between 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days when Ap is greater than or equal to 25, called the Disturbance Index (DI), at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks 1, 2,… , each of six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle and the maximum amplitude of the following sunspot cycle. In particular, variate block 9, which occurs just prior to subsequent cycle minimum, gives the best correlation (0.94) with a minimum standard error of estimation of ± 13, and hindcasting shows agreement between predicted and observed maximum amplitudes to about 10%. As applied to cycle 24, the modified precursor technique yields maximum amplitude of about 124±23 occurring about 45±4 months after its minimum amplitude occurrence, probably in mid to late 2011.

Keywords

Solar Wind Solar Cycle Rise Time Solar Phys Coronal Hole 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Bounar, K.H., Cliver, E.W., Boriakoff, V.: 1997, Solar Phys. 176, 211. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  2. Duhau, S.: 2003, Solar Phys. 213, 203. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  3. Feynman, J.: 1982, J. Geophys. Res. 87, 6153. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  4. Hanslmeier, A., Denkmayr, K., Weiss, P.: 1999, Solar Phys. 184, 213. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  5. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M.: 2004, Solar Phys. 224, 5. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  6. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M.: 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L18101. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  7. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M., Reichmann, D.J.: 1994, Solar Phys. 151, 177. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  8. Jain, R.: 2006, The 36th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, Abstract Number C4.2-0053-06 (in CD-ROM), Beijing, 16 – 23 July 2006, 642. Google Scholar
  9. Kane, R.P.: 1997a, Geophys.Res. Lett. 25, 3121. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  10. Kane, R.P.: 1997b, Ann. Geophys. 15, 1581. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  11. Kane, R.P.: 2007a, Solar Phys. 243, 205. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  12. Kane, R.P.: 2007b, Solar Phys. 246, 487. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  13. Lantos, P.: 2000, Solar Phys. 196, 221. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  14. Lantos, P., Richard, O.: 1998, Solar Phys. 182, 231. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  15. Legrand, J.P., Simon, P.A.: 1981, Solar Phys. 70, 173. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  16. Legrand, J.P., Simon, P.A.: 1991, Solar Phys. 131, 187. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  17. Li, Y.: 1997, Solar Phys. 170, 437. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  18. Ohl, A.I.: 1966, Soln. Dannye 12, 84. Google Scholar
  19. Ohl, A.I.: 1968, Probl. Arkt. Antarkt. 28, 137. Google Scholar
  20. Ohl, A.I.: 1971, Geomagn. Apron. 11, 549. Google Scholar
  21. Ohl, A.I.: 1976, Soln. Dannye 4, 73. ADSGoogle Scholar
  22. Ohl, A.I., Ohl, G.I.: 1979, AA. In: Donnelly, R.F. (ed.) Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Proceedings, NOAA/Space Environmental Laboratories, Boulder, 258. Google Scholar
  23. Ohl, A.I., Ohl, G.I.: 1986, In: Simon, P.A., Heckman, G., Shea, M.A. (eds.) Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Proceedings II, NOAA, and AFGL, USA. Google Scholar
  24. Schatten, K.H., Myers, D.J., Sofia, S.: 1996, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 605. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  25. Schatten, K.H., Scherrer, P.H., Svalgaard, L., Wilcox, J.M.: 1978, Geophys. Res. Lett. 5, 411. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  26. Shastri, S.: 1998, Solar Phys. 180, 499. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  27. Simon, P.A., Legrand, J.P.: 1992, Solar Phys. 141, 391. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  28. Svalgaard, L.: 1977, In: Zirker, J.B. (ed.) Coronal Holes and High Speed Wind Streams, Colorado Associated University Press, Boulder. Google Scholar
  29. Thompson, R.: 1987, IPS Radio and Space Services, IPS-TR-87-03. Google Scholar
  30. Thompson, R.: 1993, S. Solar phys. 148, 383. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  31. Thompson, R.: 1997, In: Heckman, G., Marubashi, K., Shea, M.A., Smart, D.F., Thompson, R. (eds.) Solar-Terrestrial Predictions V, Communications Research Laboratory, Japan, 65. Google Scholar
  32. Verdes, P.F., Parodi, M.A., Granitto, P.M., Navone, H.D., Piacentini, R.D., Ceccatto, H.A.: 2000, Solar Phys. 191, 419. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  33. Wilson, P.R.: 1994, Solar and Stellar Activity Cycles, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Google Scholar
  34. Wilson, R.M.: 1987, J. Geophys. Res. 92, 10101. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  35. Wilson, R.M., Hathaway, D.H., Reichmann, E.J.: 1998a, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 6595. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  36. Wilson, R.M., Hathaway, D.H., Reichmann, E.J.: 1998b, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 17411. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • R. S. Dabas
    • 1
    Email author
  • Kavita Sharma
    • 1
  • Rupesh M. Das
    • 1
  • K. G. M. Pillai
    • 1
  • Parvati Chopra
    • 1
  • N. K. Sethi
    • 1
  1. 1.Radio and Atmospheric Sciences DivisionNational Physical LaboratoryNew DelhiIndia

Personalised recommendations