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Solar Physics

, Volume 248, Issue 1, pp 191–202 | Cite as

On Prediction of the Strength of the 11-Year Solar Cycle No. 24

  • V. N. ObridkoEmail author
  • B. D. Shelting
Article

Abstract

Various forecast techniques have been analyzed with reference to solar activity cycle 24. Three prediction indices have been proposed: the intensity of the polar field, the mean field at the source surface, and a recurrence index of geomagnetic disturbances. As a rule, the forecast based on the polar field and extrapolation of local fields gives a height for cycle 24 that is smaller than that of cycle 23. The use of the recurrence index and the global field value leads us to the conclusion that cycle 24 will be medium high: the same as or somewhat higher than cycle 23.

Keywords

Solar Activity Solar Cycle Solar Phys Coronal Hole Geomagnetic Activity 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave PropagationTroitskRussia

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