Solar Physics

, Volume 246, Issue 2, pp 487–493 | Cite as

Solar Cycle Predictions Based on Extrapolation of Spectral Components: An Update

Article

Abstract

Three series (1876 – 1986, 1886 – 1996, and 1896 – 2006) of 111 annual values of sunspot number R z in each were subjected to spectral analysis to detect periodicities by the maximum entropy method (MEM), and the periodicities so obtained were used in a multiple regression analysis (MRA) to estimate the amplitudes and phases. All series showed roughly similar spectra with many periodicities (24 or more), but most of these were insignificant. The significant periodicities (far exceeding 2σ) were near 5, 8 – 12, 18, and 37 years. Using the amplitudes and phases of these, we obtained reconstructed series, which showed good correlations (+ 0.7 and more) with the original series. When extrapolated further in time, the reconstructed series indicated R z(max) in the ranges 80 – 101 (mean 92) for cycle 24 during years 2011 – 2014, 112 – 127 (mean 119) for cycle 25 during years 2022 – 2023, 115 – 120 (mean 118) for cycle 26 during years 2032 – 2034, and 100 – 113 (mean 109) for cycle 27 during 2043 – 2045.

Keywords

Sunspots Periodicities Predictions Solar cycle 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Ahluwalia, H.S.: 1998, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 12103. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  2. Bevington, P.R.: 1969, Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences. McGraw-Hill, New York, 164. Google Scholar
  3. Blackman, R.B., Tukey, J.W.: 1958, The Measurement of Power Spectra. Dover, New York, 190. Google Scholar
  4. Burg, J.P.: 1967, Presented at the 37th Meeting, Society of Exploration Geophysics, Oklahoma City, October. Google Scholar
  5. Clilverd, M.: 2005, In: Solar Activity: Exploration, Understanding and Prediction, Workshop in Lund, Sweden. Google Scholar
  6. Clilverd, M., Clark, E., Ulich, T., Linthe, J., Rishbeth, H.: 2006, Space Weather 4, S09005. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Cohen, T.J., Lintz, P.R.: 1974, Nature 250, 398. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  8. Cole, T.W.: 1973, Solar Phys. 30, 103. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  9. Currie, R.G.: 1973, Astrophys. Space Sci. 20, 509. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  10. DeMeyer, F.: 1981, Solar Phys. 70, 259. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  11. Du, Z.L.: 2006, Astron. J. 132, 1485. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  12. Duhau, S.: 2003, Solar Phys. 213, 203. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  13. Echer, E., Rigozo, N.R., Nordemann, D.J.R., Vieira, L.E.A.: 2004, Ann. Geophys. 22, 2239. ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Gholipour, A., Lucasa, C., Araabia, B.N., Shafiee, M.: 2005, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 67, 595. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  15. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M.: 2004, Solar Phys. 224, 5. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  16. Kane, R.P.: 1977, J. Geomag. Geoelectr. 29, 471. ADSGoogle Scholar
  17. Kane, R.P.: 1979, J. Geophys. Res. 84, 965. ADSGoogle Scholar
  18. Kane, R.P.: 1999, Solar Phys. 189, 217. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  19. Kane, R.P.: 2005, Solar Phys. 227, 155. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  20. Kane, R.P.: 2006, Appl. Math. Comput. 181, 949. MATHCrossRefMathSciNetGoogle Scholar
  21. Kane, R.P.: 2007, Solar Phys. 243, 205. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  22. Kane, R.P., Trivedi, N.B.: 1982, Geophysics 47, 1731. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  23. Kane, R.P., Trivedi, N.B.: 1985, J. Geomag. Geoelectr. 37, 1071. ADSGoogle Scholar
  24. Kimura, H.: 1913, Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 73, 543. ADSGoogle Scholar
  25. McKinnon, J.A.: 1987, UAG Report 95, NOAA, Boulder, CO. Google Scholar
  26. Nordemann, D.J.R., Rigozo, N.R., Echer, M.P. de S., Echer, E.: 2007, Comput. Geosci., CAGEO-D-06-00333. Google Scholar
  27. Radoski, H.R., Fougere, P.F., Zawalick, E.J.: 1975, J. Geophys. Res. 80, 619. ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Ramanuja Rao, K.: 1973, Solar Phys. 29, 47. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  29. Rangarajan, G.K.: 1998, Earth Planets Space 50, 91. ADSGoogle Scholar
  30. Rigozo, N.R., Echer, E., Nordemann, D.J.R., Vieira, L.E.A., de Faria, H.H.: 2005, Appl. Math. Comput. 168, 411. MATHCrossRefMathSciNetGoogle Scholar
  31. Schatten, K.H., Tobiska, W.K.: 2003, Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 35, 817. ADSGoogle Scholar
  32. Turner, H.H.: 1913, Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 73, 714. ADSGoogle Scholar
  33. Ulrych, T.J., Bishop, T.N.: 1975, Rev. Geophys. 13, 183. ADSGoogle Scholar
  34. Waldmeier, M.: 1961, The Sunspot Activity in the Years 1610 – 1960, Schulthess & Co. AG, Zürich. Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas EspaciasSão Jose dos CamposBrazil

Personalised recommendations