Advertisement

Solar Physics

, Volume 243, Issue 2, pp 253–258 | Cite as

Forecasting the Peak Amplitude of the 24th and 25th Sunspot Cycles and Accompanying Geomagnetic Activity

  • Maha S. QuassimEmail author
  • Abdel-Fattah Attia
  • Hamdy K. Elminir
Article

Abstract

Forecasting solar and geomagnetic levels of activity is essential to help plan missions and to design satellites that will survive for their useful lifetimes. Therefore, amplitudes of the upcoming solar cycles and the geomagnetic activity were forecasted using the neuro-fuzzy approach. Results of this work allow us to draw the following conclusions: Two moderate cycles are estimated to approach their maximum sunspot numbers, 110 and 116 in 2011 and 2021, respectively. However, the predicted geomagnetic activity shown to be in phase with the peak of the 24th sunspot cycle will reach its minimum three years earlier, then it will rise sharply to reach the 25th maximum a year earlier (i.e., 2020). Our analysis of the three-century long sunspot number data-set suggests that the quasi-periodic variation of the long-term evolution of solar activity could explain the irregularity of the short-term cycles seen during the past decades.

Keywords

Solar Activity Solar Cycle Solar Phys Sunspot Number Geomagnetic Activity 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Andryeyeva, O.A., Stepanian, N.N.: 2006, In: Solar and Stellar Activity Cycles, 26th Meeting of the IAU, Joint Discussion 8, 17 – 18 August 2006, Prague, Czech Republic, JD08, #34. Google Scholar
  2. Attia, A., Hamid, R.H., Maha, Q.: 2005, Solar Phys. 227, 177. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  3. Chopra, P., Dabas, R.S.: 2006, In: 36th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, 16 – 23 July 2006, Beijing, China, 909. Google Scholar
  4. Conway, A.J.: 1998, New Astron. Rev. 42, 343. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  5. Corbard, T., Dikpati, M., Gilman, P.A., Thompson, M.J.: 2002, Astrophys J. 575, L41. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  6. Dikpati, M., Giuliana, T., Peter, A.G.: 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L05102. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Fessant, F., Pierret, C., Lantos, P.: 1996, Solar Phys. 168, 423. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  8. Gleissberg, W.A.: 1944, Terr. Magn. Atmosph. Electr. 49, 243. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M.: 2006, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting, 2006, abstract #SH21A-0330. Google Scholar
  10. Hamid, R.H., Galal, A.A.: 2006, In: Solar Activity and Its Magnetic Origin, Proceedings of the 233rd Symposium of the International Astronomical Union, Cairo, Egypt, March 31 – April 4, 2006, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 413. Google Scholar
  11. Kugblenu, S., Taguchi, S., Okuzawa, T.: 1999, Earth Planets Space 51, 307. ADSGoogle Scholar
  12. MacPherson, K.: 1994, Vistas Astron. 38, 341. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  13. Macpherson, K.P., Conway, A.J., Brown, J.C.: 1995, J. Geophys. Res. 100(A11), 21735. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  14. Mursula, K., Martini, D., Karinen, A.: 2004, Solar Phys. 224, 85. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  15. Rozelot, J.P.: 1994, Solar Phys. 149, 149. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  16. Ruzmaikin, A.: 1997, Astron. Astrophys. 319, L13. ADSGoogle Scholar
  17. Ruzmaikin, A.: 1998, Solar Phys. 181, 1. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  18. Stamper, R., Lockwood, M., Wild, M.N., Clark, T.D.G.: 1999, J. Geophys. Res. 104(A12), 28325. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  19. Svalgaard, L.C., Edward, W., Kamide, Y.: 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32(1), L01104. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Tritakis, V., Mavromichalaki, H., Giouvanellis, G.: 2006, In: Recent Advances in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 7th International Conference of the Hellenic Astronomical Society, AIP Conf. Proc. 848, 154. Google Scholar
  21. Usoskin, I.G., Mursula, K.: 2003, In: Proc. ISCS 2003 Symposium, Solar Variability as an Input to the Earth’s Environment, Tatranská Lomnica, Slovakia, 23 – 28 June, ESA Publications Division, Noordwijk. Google Scholar
  22. Usoskin, I.G., Mursula, K., Kovaltsov, G.A.: 2001, Solar Phys. 199, 187. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  23. Yousef, S.: 2003, In: Proc. ISCS 2003 Symposium, Solar Variability as an Input to the Earth’s Environment, Tatranská Lomnica, Slovakia, 23 – 28 June, ESA Publications Division, Noordwijk, 397. Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • Maha S. Quassim
    • 1
    Email author
  • Abdel-Fattah Attia
    • 1
  • Hamdy K. Elminir
    • 1
  1. 1.National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG)HelwanEgypt

Personalised recommendations