The Relationship Between the Amplitude and Descending Time of a Solar Activity Cycle
The amplitude of a solar-activity cycle is found to be well correlated (r = −0.811) with the descending time three cycles earlier, in smoothed monthly-mean sunspot numbers for Cycles 8 – 23. The descending time therefore can be used as one of the indicators to predict the amplitudes. As a result, the amplitudes of Cycles 24 – 25 are estimated to be 114.8 ± 17.4, 111.6 ± 17.4, respectively, where the error bar equals ± standard error.
KeywordsScatter Plot Solar Phys Sunspot Number Linear Regression Equation Solar Activity Cycle
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.