Solar Physics

, Volume 238, Issue 2, pp 431–437 | Cite as

The Relationship Between the Amplitude and Descending Time of a Solar Activity Cycle

Article

Abstract

The amplitude of a solar-activity cycle is found to be well correlated (r = −0.811) with the descending time three cycles earlier, in smoothed monthly-mean sunspot numbers for Cycles 8 – 23. The descending time therefore can be used as one of the indicators to predict the amplitudes. As a result, the amplitudes of Cycles 24 – 25 are estimated to be 114.8 ± 17.4, 111.6 ± 17.4, respectively, where the error bar equals ± standard error.

Keywords

Scatter Plot Solar Phys Sunspot Number Linear Regression Equation Solar Activity Cycle 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Ahluwalia, H.S.: 1998, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 12103.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  2. Ahluwalia, H.S.: 2000, J. Geophys. Res. 105, 27481.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  3. Du, Z.L.: 2006a, Astron. Astrophys. 457, 309. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20064837.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  4. Du, Z.L.: 2006b, New Astron., 12, 29.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  5. Du, Z.L., Wang, H.N., and He, X.T.: 2006a, Chin. J. Astron. Astrophys. 6, 338.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  6. Du, Z.L., Wang, H.N., and He, X.T.: 2006b, Chin. J. Astron. Astrophys. 6, 489.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  7. Duhau, S.: 2003, Solar Phys. 213, 203.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  8. Eddy, J.A.: 1976, Science 192, 1189.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  9. Feynman, J. and Gabriel, S.B.: 1990, Solar Phys. 127, 393.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  10. Gleissberg, W.: 1971, Solar Phys. 21, 240.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  11. Gnevyshev, W. and Ohl, A.I.: 1948, Astron. Z. 25, 18.Google Scholar
  12. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M., and Reichmann, E.J.: 1994, Solar Phys. 151, 177.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  13. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M., and Reichmann, E.J.: 1999, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 22375.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  14. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M., and Reichmann, E.J.: 2002, Solar Phys. 211, 357.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  15. Hathaway, D.H. and Wilson, R.M.: 2004, Solar Phys. 224, 5.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  16. Kane, R.P.: 1978, Nature 274, 139.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  17. Kane, R.P.: 1999, Solar Phys. 189, 217.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  18. Kane, R.P.: 2001, Solar Phys. 202, 359.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Letfus, V.: 1994, Solar Phys. 149, 405.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  20. Li, K.J., Yun, H.S., and Gu, X.M.: 2001, Astron. Astrophys. 368, 285.MATHCrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  21. Meyer, F.D.: 1998, Solar Phys. 181, 201.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  22. Oliver, R., Ballester, J.L., and Baudin, F.: 1998, Nature 394, 552.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  23. Orfila, A., Ballester, J.L., Oliver, R., Alvarez, A., and Tintore, J.: 2002, Astron. Astrophys. 386, 313.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  24. Ramesh, K.B.: 2000, Solar Phys. 197, 421.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  25. Reid, G.C.: 1987, Nature 329, 142.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  26. Silverman, S.M.: 1992, Rev. Geophys. 30, 333.ADSGoogle Scholar
  27. Solanki, S.K., Krivova, N.A., Schussler, M., and Fligge, M.: 2002, Astron. Astrophys. 396, 1029.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  28. Usoskin, I.G. and Mursula, K.: 2003, Solar Phys. 218, 319.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  29. Waldmeier, M.: 1939, Astron. Mitt. Zrich 14(138), 439.Google Scholar
  30. Wang, J.L., Gong, J.C., Liu, S.Q., Le, G.M., and Sun, J.L.: 2002, Chin. J. Astron. Astrophys. 2, 557.MATHADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Wilson, R.M.: 1988, Solar Phys. 115, 397.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  32. Wilson, R.M.: 1992, Solar Phys. 140, 181.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  33. Zhang, G.Q. and Wang, H.N.: 1999, Solar Phys. 188, 397.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Astronomical ObservatoriesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.The Middle School Attached To Hebei Teacher’s UniversityShijiazhuangChina

Personalised recommendations