Springer Nature is making SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 research free. View research | View latest news | Sign up for updates

The Relationship Between the Amplitude and Descending Time of a Solar Activity Cycle

  • 81 Accesses

  • 26 Citations

Abstract

The amplitude of a solar-activity cycle is found to be well correlated (r = −0.811) with the descending time three cycles earlier, in smoothed monthly-mean sunspot numbers for Cycles 8 – 23. The descending time therefore can be used as one of the indicators to predict the amplitudes. As a result, the amplitudes of Cycles 24 – 25 are estimated to be 114.8 ± 17.4, 111.6 ± 17.4, respectively, where the error bar equals ± standard error.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

References

  1. Ahluwalia, H.S.: 1998, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 12103.

  2. Ahluwalia, H.S.: 2000, J. Geophys. Res. 105, 27481.

  3. Du, Z.L.: 2006a, Astron. Astrophys. 457, 309. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20064837.

  4. Du, Z.L.: 2006b, New Astron., 12, 29.

  5. Du, Z.L., Wang, H.N., and He, X.T.: 2006a, Chin. J. Astron. Astrophys. 6, 338.

  6. Du, Z.L., Wang, H.N., and He, X.T.: 2006b, Chin. J. Astron. Astrophys. 6, 489.

  7. Duhau, S.: 2003, Solar Phys. 213, 203.

  8. Eddy, J.A.: 1976, Science 192, 1189.

  9. Feynman, J. and Gabriel, S.B.: 1990, Solar Phys. 127, 393.

  10. Gleissberg, W.: 1971, Solar Phys. 21, 240.

  11. Gnevyshev, W. and Ohl, A.I.: 1948, Astron. Z. 25, 18.

  12. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M., and Reichmann, E.J.: 1994, Solar Phys. 151, 177.

  13. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M., and Reichmann, E.J.: 1999, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 22375.

  14. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M., and Reichmann, E.J.: 2002, Solar Phys. 211, 357.

  15. Hathaway, D.H. and Wilson, R.M.: 2004, Solar Phys. 224, 5.

  16. Kane, R.P.: 1978, Nature 274, 139.

  17. Kane, R.P.: 1999, Solar Phys. 189, 217.

  18. Kane, R.P.: 2001, Solar Phys. 202, 359.

  19. Letfus, V.: 1994, Solar Phys. 149, 405.

  20. Li, K.J., Yun, H.S., and Gu, X.M.: 2001, Astron. Astrophys. 368, 285.

  21. Meyer, F.D.: 1998, Solar Phys. 181, 201.

  22. Oliver, R., Ballester, J.L., and Baudin, F.: 1998, Nature 394, 552.

  23. Orfila, A., Ballester, J.L., Oliver, R., Alvarez, A., and Tintore, J.: 2002, Astron. Astrophys. 386, 313.

  24. Ramesh, K.B.: 2000, Solar Phys. 197, 421.

  25. Reid, G.C.: 1987, Nature 329, 142.

  26. Silverman, S.M.: 1992, Rev. Geophys. 30, 333.

  27. Solanki, S.K., Krivova, N.A., Schussler, M., and Fligge, M.: 2002, Astron. Astrophys. 396, 1029.

  28. Usoskin, I.G. and Mursula, K.: 2003, Solar Phys. 218, 319.

  29. Waldmeier, M.: 1939, Astron. Mitt. Zrich 14(138), 439.

  30. Wang, J.L., Gong, J.C., Liu, S.Q., Le, G.M., and Sun, J.L.: 2002, Chin. J. Astron. Astrophys. 2, 557.

  31. Wilson, R.M.: 1988, Solar Phys. 115, 397.

  32. Wilson, R.M.: 1992, Solar Phys. 140, 181.

  33. Zhang, G.Q. and Wang, H.N.: 1999, Solar Phys. 188, 397.

Download references

Author information

Correspondence to Zhanle Du.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Du, Z., Du, S. The Relationship Between the Amplitude and Descending Time of a Solar Activity Cycle. Sol Phys 238, 431–437 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-006-0175-5

Download citation

Keywords

  • Scatter Plot
  • Solar Phys
  • Sunspot Number
  • Linear Regression Equation
  • Solar Activity Cycle