The Skewness of a Solar Cycle as a Precursor of the Amplitude of the Next
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As a precursor for predicting the maximum amplitude of the coming solar cycle, the skewness of the previous cycle proposed by Ramaswamy (1977) is revisited. The reliability of the prediction method is improved by separating odd and even cycles. A first method is proposed on the basis of calculated skewness. In that case, the prediction is available at the end of the previous cycle. A possibility to anticipate the availability of the skewness by about one year is pointed out. A second method, adding prediction of the skewness itself is studied. The statistical reliability is lower than in the first case, but the prediction of a cycle maximum is available at the maximum of the previous cycle.
KeywordsSolar Activity Solar Cycle Solar Phys Previous Cycle Sunspot Cycle
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