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Solar Physics

, Volume 236, Issue 1, pp 199–205 | Cite as

The Skewness of a Solar Cycle as a Precursor of the Amplitude of the Next

  • P. LantosEmail author
Article

Abstract

As a precursor for predicting the maximum amplitude of the coming solar cycle, the skewness of the previous cycle proposed by Ramaswamy (1977) is revisited. The reliability of the prediction method is improved by separating odd and even cycles. A first method is proposed on the basis of calculated skewness. In that case, the prediction is available at the end of the previous cycle. A possibility to anticipate the availability of the skewness by about one year is pointed out. A second method, adding prediction of the skewness itself is studied. The statistical reliability is lower than in the first case, but the prediction of a cycle maximum is available at the maximum of the previous cycle.

Keywords

Solar Activity Solar Cycle Solar Phys Previous Cycle Sunspot Cycle 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Observatoire de ParisParisFrance

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