Solar Physics

, Volume 236, Issue 1, pp 199–205 | Cite as

The Skewness of a Solar Cycle as a Precursor of the Amplitude of the Next

  • P. LantosEmail author


As a precursor for predicting the maximum amplitude of the coming solar cycle, the skewness of the previous cycle proposed by Ramaswamy (1977) is revisited. The reliability of the prediction method is improved by separating odd and even cycles. A first method is proposed on the basis of calculated skewness. In that case, the prediction is available at the end of the previous cycle. A possibility to anticipate the availability of the skewness by about one year is pointed out. A second method, adding prediction of the skewness itself is studied. The statistical reliability is lower than in the first case, but the prediction of a cycle maximum is available at the maximum of the previous cycle.


Solar Activity Solar Cycle Solar Phys Previous Cycle Sunspot Cycle 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Bravo, S. and Otaola, J. A.: 1989, Solar Phys. 122, 335.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  2. Hathaway, D. H., Wilson, R. M., and Reichmann, E. J.: 1994, Solar Phys. 151, 177.ADSGoogle Scholar
  3. Kane, R. P.: 1989, Solar Phys. 122, 175.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  4. Lantos, P.: 1997, Le Soleil en face, Masson-Dunod, Paris.Google Scholar
  5. Lantos, P.: 2000, Solar Phys. 196, 221.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  6. Lantos, P.: 2006, Solar Phys. (in press).Google Scholar
  7. Lantos, P. and Richard, O.: 1998, Solar Phys. 182, 231.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  8. Lanzerotti, L. J.: 1983, Space Sci. Rev. 34, 347.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  9. McNish, A. G. and Lincoln, J. V.: 1949, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 30, 673.Google Scholar
  10. Sargent, H. H.: 1978, in Proceedings of the 28th IEEE Vehicular Technical Conference, Denver, 1978, p. 490.Google Scholar
  11. Ramaswamy, G.: 1977, Nature 265, 713.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Waldmeier, M.: 1961, The Sunspot-Activity in the Years 1610–1960, Schulthess and Co., Zürich.Google Scholar
  13. Waldmeier, M.: 1968, Astr. Mitt. Sternw. Zürich 286, 13.Google Scholar
  14. Wilson, R. P.: 1994, Solar and Stellar Activity Cycles, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, Chapter 14.Google Scholar
  15. Wilson, R. M., Hathaway, D. H., and Reichmann, E. J.: 1998, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 6595.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Observatoire de ParisParisFrance

Personalised recommendations