Solar Physics

, Volume 231, Issue 1–2, pp 167–176 | Cite as

On the Possibility of Forecasting the Sun's Activity Using Radiocarbon Solar Proxy

  • M. G. Ogurtsov


Group sunspot number (GSN) values, averaged over decades, were reconstructed for a time interval 8505 BC–AD 1945 using data on the concentration of radiocarbon in tree rings. The prediction of an average level of solar activity was made for the future four decades by means of a nonlinear forecasting method. It was shown that the average activity of the Sun during 2005–2045 would be lower than at present. The given result is compared to the long-term forecasts by other authors. The importance of a paleoastrophysical approach for obtaining a long-term solar prognosis and for revealing the basic characteristics of solar activity change was confirmed.


Average Level Solar Activity Basic Characteristic Average Activity Tree Ring 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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© Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.A. F. Ioffe Physico-Technical Institute of Russian Academy of SciencesSt. PetersburgRussia

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