Advertisement

When It Rains, It Pours? Analyzing the Rainfall Shocks-Poverty Nexus in the Philippines

  • Connie Bayudan-DacuycuyEmail author
  • Lora Kryz Baje
Original Research
  • 5 Downloads

Abstract

Weather is an integral part of our life and weather shocks can have severe implications on welfare. Given evidence that points to climate change resulting in altered patterns of weather parameters and given that the Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries to climatic shifts, this paper aims to contribute to poverty studies in the country by analyzing the poverty-rainfall shock nexus. The paper finds that rainfall shocks affect wages and income, which in turn, affect chronic total and chronic food poverty. Some policy directions are provided.

Keywords

Rainfall shock Components approach Chronic poverty Transient poverty Philippines 

JEL Classification

I3 I32 

Notes

References

  1. Albert, J., & Dacuycuy, C. (2017). Evaluation and assessment of the effectiveness of the Department of Social Welfare and Development internal and external convergence as operationalized by the Regional, Provincial, and City/Municipal Action Teams. PIDS Discussion Paper Series 2017-32. Quezon City, Philippines.Google Scholar
  2. Aldaba, F. (2009). Poverty in the Philippines: Causes, consequences and opportunities. Mandaluyong: Asian Development Bank Report.Google Scholar
  3. Asian Development Bank. (2017). A region at risk: The human dimensions of climate change in Asia and the Pacific. Ortigas, Philippines.Google Scholar
  4. Baez, J., Lucchetti, L., Genoni, M., & Salazar, M. (2015). Gone with the storm: Rainfall shocks and household well-being in Guatemala. IZA Discussion Paper No. 8792. Bonn, Germany.Google Scholar
  5. Balisacan, A. (2003a). Poverty and inequality. In A. Balisacan & H. Hill (Eds.), The Philippine economy: Development, policies, and challenges. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Balisacan, A. (2003b). Poverty comparison in the Philippines: Is what we know about the poor robust? In C. Edmonds (Ed.), Reducing poverty in Asia: Emerging issues in growth, targeting, and measurement. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.Google Scholar
  7. Balisacan, A., & Pernia, E. (2002). The rural road to poverty reduction: Some lessons from the Philippine experience. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 37, 147–167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bayani-Arias, J. K., & Palanca-Tan, R. (2017). Analyzing the relationship between exposure to extreme weather and economic inequality in the Philippines. Journal of Economics, Management Agricultural Development, 3(1), 27–39.Google Scholar
  9. Bayudan-Dacuycuy, C. (2013). The influence of living with parents on women’s decision making participation in the household: Evidence from the Southern Philippines. The Journal of Development Studies, 49(5), 641–656.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Bayudan-Dacuycuy, C. (2017). Energy consumption, weather variability, and gender in the Philippines: A discrete/continuous approach. PIDS Discussion Paper Series 2017-06. Quezon City, Philippines.Google Scholar
  11. Bayudan-Dacuycuy, C., & Lim, J. (2013). Family size, household shocks and chronic and transient poverty in the Philippines. Journal of Asian Economics, 29, 101–112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Bayudan-Dacuycuy, C., & Lim, J. (2014). Chronic and transient poverty and vulnerability to poverty in the Philippines: Evidence using a simple spells approach. Social Indicator Research, 118, 389–413.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Davies, M., Guenther, B., Leavy, J., Mitchell, T., & Tanner, T. (2009). Climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction and social protection: Complementary roles in agriculture and rural growth? IDS Working Paper No. 320. Brighton, United Kingdom: The Institute of Development Studies.Google Scholar
  14. Deaton, A. (1997). The analysis of household surveys: Microeconomic analysis for development (p. 480p). Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Deaton, A., & Zaidi, S. (2002). Guidelines for constructing consumption aggregates for welfare analysis. World Bank LSMS Working Paper Number 135. Washington DC, USA.Google Scholar
  16. Deschenes, O., & Greenstone, M. (2007). The economic impacts of climate change: Evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather. The American Economic Review, 97(1), 354–385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Devicienti, F. (2002). Estimating poverty persistence in Britain. Center for Employment Studies Working Paper Series No. 1. LABORatorio Riccardo Revelli, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy.Google Scholar
  18. Duclos, J., Araar, A., & Giles, J. (2010). Chronic and transient poverty: Measurement and estimation, with evidence from China. Journal of Development Economics, 91, 266–277.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Duncan, G., & Rodgers, W. (1991). Has children’s poverty become more persistent? American Sociological Review, 56, 538–550.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Eckstein, D., Künzel, V., & Schäfer, L (2018). Global climate risk index 2018: Who suffers most from extreme weather events? Weather-related loss events in 2016 and 1997 to 2016. Germanwatch. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/20432.pdf.
  21. Fitzgerald, J., Gottschalk, P., & Moffit, R. (1998). An analysis of sample attrition in panel data. Journal of Human Resources, 33(2), 251–299.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Haddad, L., & Ahmed, A. (2003). Chronic and transitory poverty: Evidence for Egypt, 1997-99. World Development, 31, 71–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hallegate, S., Fay, M., & Barbier, E. (2018). Poverty and climate change: Introduction. Environment and Development Economics, 23, 217–233.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Handa, S. (1996). Expenditure behavior and children’s welfare analysis of female headed households in Jamaica. Journal of Development Economics, 50, 165–187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Intal, P. (1994). The state of poverty in the Philippines: An overview. In P. S. Intal Jr. & M. C. S. Bantilan (Eds.), Understanding poverty and inequity in the Philippines. Pasig: National Economic and Development Authority.Google Scholar
  26. Jalan, J., & Ravallion, M. (1998). Transient poverty in postreform rural China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 26, 338–357.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Kuriakose, A., Heltberg, R., Wiseman, W., Costella, C., Cipryk, R., & Cornelius, S. (2012). World Bank climate-responsive social protection. Discussion Paper No. 1210. Washington DC, USA.Google Scholar
  28. Levine, D., & Yang, D. (2014). The impact of rainfall on rice output in Indonesia. NBER Working Paper 20302. Massachusetts, CA.Google Scholar
  29. Lillard, L., & Willis, R. (1978). Dynamic aspects of earnings mobility. Economica, 46, 985–1012.Google Scholar
  30. Maccini, S., & Yang, D. (2009). Under the weather: Health, schooling, and economic consequences of early-life rainfall. The American Economic Review, 99(3), 1006–1026.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Mansur, E., Mendelsohn, R., & Morrison, W. (2008). Climate change adaptation: A study of fuel choice and consumption in the US energy sector. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 55(2), 175–193.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Mina, C., & Imai, K. (2016). Estimation of vulnerability to poverty using a multilevel longitudinal model: Evidence from the Philippines. Journal of Development Studies.  https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2016.1265942.Google Scholar
  33. National Economic Development Authority. (2017). Philippine Development Plan 2017–2022. Pasig City.Google Scholar
  34. Noy, I., & Vu, T. (2010). The economics of natural disasters in a developing country: The case of Vietnam. Journal of Asian Economics, 21, 345–354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Olsson, L., Opondo, M., Tschakert, P., Agrawal, A., Eriksen, S., Ma, S., et al. (2014). Livelihoods and poverty. In C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea, & L. L. White (Eds.), Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. (pp. 793–832)., Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  36. Quisumbing, A., & Maluccio, J. (2003). Resources at marriage and intrahousehold allocation: Evidence from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and South Africa. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 65(3), 283–327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Safir, A., Piza, S., & Skoufias, E. (2013). Disquiet on the weather front: The welfare impacts of climatic variability in the rural Philippines. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6579. Washington DC, USA.Google Scholar
  38. Samuelson, P. (1974). Complementarity: An essay on the 40th anniversary of the Hicks-Allen revolution in demand theory. Journal of Economic Literature, 12(4), 1255–1289.Google Scholar
  39. Skidmore, M., & Toya, H. (2002). Do natural disasters promote long-run growth? Economic Inquiry, 40(4), 664–687.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Skoufias, E., Katayama, R., & Essama-Nssah, B. (2012). Too little too late: Welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Studies, 48(3), 351–368.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Skoufias, E., Vinha, K., & Conroy, H. (2011). The impacts of climate variability on welfare in Rural Mexico. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5555. Washington DC, USA.Google Scholar
  42. Thomas, T., Christiansen, L., Do, Q., & Trung, L. (2010). Natural disasters and household welfare: Evidence from Vietnam. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Number 5491. Washington DC, USA.Google Scholar
  43. Wolpin, K. (1982). A new test of the permanent income hypothesis: The impact of weather on the income and consumption of farm households. International Economic Review, 23(3), 583–594.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Yang, D., & Choi, H. (2007). Are remittances insurance? Evidence from rainfall shocks in the Philippines. The World Bank Economic Review, 21(2), 219–248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Philippine Institute for Development StudiesQuezon CityPhilippines
  2. 2.Economics DepartmentAteneo De Manila UniversityQuezon CityPhilippines

Personalised recommendations