Vulnerability to Poverty: Tajikistan During and After the Global Financial Crisis
- 203 Downloads
We use a new formal, practical, and easily decomposable measure to examine vulnerability to poverty in Tajikistan during the global financial crisis. Our strategy is to estimate a first-order Markov model of household expenditure with the aim of identifying the vulnerability of households to poverty. We use Bayesian methods which allow us to estimate the limiting expenditure distribution. Importantly, by introducing the index of vulnerability as the weighted probability of a household falling into poverty over a given time horizon, we can use the estimated dynamics to assess short, medium and long-run vulnerability. We find that during the “recession transition” almost all households were vulnerable to poverty while almost none were during the “recovery period”. Overall, urban households, more educated households and households receiving remittances from international labor migrants were less vulnerable to poverty. While households with a current or very recent migrant did not have a significantly lower measured vulnerability to poverty, those households receiving remittances from migrants had a lower vulnerability to poverty. Our findings stress that the international labor migration from Tajikistan may not be a reliable means of welfare security for households because external economic shocks and internal political decisions can negatively affect the Russian economy and lead to a reduction of remittance flows to Tajikistan.
KeywordsMobility measurement Vulnerability Poverty Inequality Measurement Tajikistan
JEL ClassificationJ60 D63 I32
We thank Ilhom Abdulloev and Melanie Khamis for long conversations on this material, and IOS-Regensburg for the data. An earlier version was presented at the UNU-WIDER Conference: Inequality-Measurement, Trends, Impacts, and Policies, 5–6 September 2014, Helsinki, Finland. Myeong-Su Yun’s work is supported by Inha University Research Grant (INHA-55452).
- Chaudhuri, S. (2003). Assessing vulnerability to poverty: Concepts, empirical methods and illustrative examples. Department of Economics, Columbia University, New York. Accessed 25 April 2017 http://econdse.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/vulnerability-assessment.pdf.
- Dang, H. A., & Lanjouw, P. (2014). Welfare dynamics measurement: two definitions of a vulnerability line and their empirical application. World Bank policy research working paper, (6944). http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6944. Accessed 13 December 2015.
- Danzer, A. M., Dietz, B., & Gatskova, K. (2013a). Tajikistan household panel survey: Migration, remittances and the labor market: Survey report. IOS-Regensburg. http://www.ios-regensburg.de/fileadmin/doc/VW_Project/Booklet-TJ-web.pdf. Accessed 05 December 2014.
- Danzer, A. M., Dietz, B., & Gatskova, K. (2013b). Migration and remittances in Tajikistan: Survey technical report. http://ideas.repec.org/p/ost/wpaper/327.html. Accessed 05 December 2014.
- Danzer, A. M., & Ivaschenko, O. (2010). Migration patterns in a remittances dependent economy: Evidence from Tajikistan during the global financial crisis. Migration Letters, 7(2), 190–202.Google Scholar
- Deaton, A. (1997). The analysis of household surveys: A microeconometric approach to development policy. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. http://go.worldbank.org/UWQRT802H0. Accessed 13 December 2015.
- Dimova, R., Gang, I. N., & Landon-Lane, J. S. (2006). The informal sector during crisis and transition. In B. Guha-Khasnobis & B. Kanbur (Eds.), Informal labour markets and development (pp. 88–108). New York: Palgrave-McMillan Press.Google Scholar
- Gang, I. N., Landon-Lane, J. S., & Yun, M.-S. (2002). Gender differences in German upward income mobility. Schmollers Jahrbuch: Journal of Applied Social Science Studies/Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts-und Sozialwissenschaften, 123(1), 3–14.Google Scholar
- Gang, I. N., Landon-Lane, J. S., & Yun, M.-S. (2004). Good and bad mobility: A note on directional mobility measures. Mimeo: Department of Economics, Rutgers University.Google Scholar
- IMF. (2012). International Monetary Fund. Republic of Tajikistan: Poverty reduction strategy paper. IMF country report no. 12/33. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/cr1233.pdf. Accessed 2 February 2016.
- IMF. (2016). International Monetary Fund. Primary commodity prices. Monthly data. http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.aspx. Accessed 2 February 2016.
- Klasen, S., & Waibel, H. (Eds.). (2013). Vulnerability to poverty. Theory, measurement and determinants. NY: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
- Marat, E. (2009). Labor migration in Central Asia: Implications of the global economic crisis. Central Asia-Caucasus Institute. Silk road paper, May 2009. http://www.isdp.eu/images/stories/isdp-main-pdf/2009_marat_labor-migration-in-central-asia.pdf. Accessed 13 December 2015.
- Mina, C. D., & Imai, K. S. (2016). Estimation of vulnerability to poverty using a multilevel longitudinal model: Evidence from the Philippines. The Journal of Development Studies. http://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/DP2016-16.pdf.
- Ratha, D., Mohapatra, S., Silwal, A. (2009). Outlook for remittance flows 2009–2011: Remittances expected to fall by 7–10 percent in 2009. Migration and development brief 10. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
- Tajikistan in Figures. (2010). Agency of statistics under president of the Republic of Tajikistan. http://www.stat.tj/ru/img/9f5268b192177e16d1066c1e16aea04a_1287832044.pdf. Accessed 2 February 2016.
- UNDP. (2008). United Nations Development Programme. National human development report: Russian Federation. Russia facing demographic challenges. http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/nhdr_russia_2008_eng.pdf. Accessed 2 February 2016.
- UNDP. (2010). United Nations Development Programme. National Human development report 2008–2009. Tajikistan. Employment in the context of human development. http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/tajikistan2009_eng.pdf. Accessed 2 February 2016.
- World Bank. (2009). Republic of Tajikistan poverty assessment: Report no. 51341-TJ. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/3159 Accessed 20 December 2015.
- World Bank. (2015). World development indicators database. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/variableselection/selectvariables.aspx?source=world-development-indicators. Accessed 20 February 2015.