Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica

, Volume 54, Issue 3, pp 513–528

Analysis of uncertainties in regional climate model outputs over the Czech Republic

  • Eva Holtanová
  • Jaroslava Kalvová
  • Jiří Mikšovský
  • Petr Pišoft
  • Martin Motl
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s11200-010-0030-x

Cite this article as:
Holtanová, E., Kalvová, J., Mikšovský, J. et al. Stud Geophys Geod (2010) 54: 513. doi:10.1007/s11200-010-0030-x

Abstract

In this study we present results of uncertainty analysis in eight regional climate model (RCM) outputs over the area of the Czech Republic. The RCM simulations come from the EU 5th Framework program project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Using the analysis of variance we have found that the main source of uncertainty in projected changes of mean seasonal air temperature is the driving global climate model. In case of precipitation changes, the RCM is the largest source of uncertainty in all seasons except for the spring. With the second method, the Reliability Averaging method, we have focused on the uncertainty coming from the RCM itself. The results of both methods showed that the relative contribution of the regional climate model to the uncertainty of simulated mean seasonal air temperature and precipitation changes is largest in summer and smallest in winter.

Keywords

global climate model emission scenario climate change projection reliability averaging method analysis of variance project PRUDENCE natural variability 

Copyright information

© Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, v.v.i 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Eva Holtanová
    • 1
  • Jaroslava Kalvová
    • 1
  • Jiří Mikšovský
    • 1
  • Petr Pišoft
    • 1
  • Martin Motl
    • 1
  1. 1.Faculty of Mathematics and PhysicsCharles UniversityPraha 8Czech Republic

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