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Scientometrics

, Volume 87, Issue 3, pp 687–694 | Cite as

Forecasting trends of development of psychology from a bibliometric perspective

  • Günter KrampenEmail author
  • Alexander von Eye
  • Gabriel Schui
Article

Abstract

Bibliometric data on psychology publications from 1977 through 2008 are modeled and forecasted for the 10 years following 2008. Data refer to the raw frequencies of the PsycINFO (94% English-language, mainly Anglo-American publications) and the English-language documents of PSYNDEX (publications from the German-speaking countries). The series were modelled by way of exponential smoothing. In contrast to Single Moving Average methods which do not weigh observations, exponential smoothing assigns differential weights to observations. Weights reflect the distance from the most recent data point. Results suggest strongly expanding publication activities which can be represented by exponential functions. In addition, forecasted publication activities, estimated based on psychology publication frequencies in the past, show positive bibliometric trends in the Anglo-American research community. These trends go in parallel the bibliometric trends for the English-language publications of German-speaking authors. However, while positive trends were forecasted for all psychological subdisciplines of the Anglo-American publication database PsycINFO, negative bibliometric trends were estimated for English-language publications from German-speaking authors in 6 out of 20 subdisciplines.

Keywords

Bibliometry Scientometry Psychology History of psychology Forecasted developmental trends 

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Copyright information

© Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Günter Krampen
    • 1
    Email author
  • Alexander von Eye
    • 2
    • 3
  • Gabriel Schui
    • 1
  1. 1.Leibniz-Institute for Psychology Information (ZPID)University of TrierTrierGermany
  2. 2.Department of PsychologyMichigan State UniversityEast LansingUSA
  3. 3.University of ViennaViennaAustria

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