Forecasting trends of development of psychology from a bibliometric perspective
- 415 Downloads
Bibliometric data on psychology publications from 1977 through 2008 are modeled and forecasted for the 10 years following 2008. Data refer to the raw frequencies of the PsycINFO (94% English-language, mainly Anglo-American publications) and the English-language documents of PSYNDEX (publications from the German-speaking countries). The series were modelled by way of exponential smoothing. In contrast to Single Moving Average methods which do not weigh observations, exponential smoothing assigns differential weights to observations. Weights reflect the distance from the most recent data point. Results suggest strongly expanding publication activities which can be represented by exponential functions. In addition, forecasted publication activities, estimated based on psychology publication frequencies in the past, show positive bibliometric trends in the Anglo-American research community. These trends go in parallel the bibliometric trends for the English-language publications of German-speaking authors. However, while positive trends were forecasted for all psychological subdisciplines of the Anglo-American publication database PsycINFO, negative bibliometric trends were estimated for English-language publications from German-speaking authors in 6 out of 20 subdisciplines.
KeywordsBibliometry Scientometry Psychology History of psychology Forecasted developmental trends
- Albert, D. (1985). Vorwort des Herausgebers [Preface of the editor]. In D. Albert (Ed.), Bericht über den 34. Kongreß der DGFPs in Wien 1984, Proceedings of the 34th Congress of the German Psychological Association in Vienna 1984 (Vol. 1, pp. V–VIII). Göttingen: Hogrefe.Google Scholar
- Bättig, K. (1976). Thematische Gliederung der psychologischen Fachliteratur von 1958 bis 1974 [Thematic structure of psychological literature from 1958 through 1974]. Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Psychologie und ihre Anwendungen, 35, 212–217.Google Scholar
- Gallagher Tuleya, L. (Ed.). (2007). Thesaurus of psychological index terms (11th ed.). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.Google Scholar
- Kliegl, R., & Bates, D. (2010). International collaboration in psychology on the rise. Scientometrics. doi: 10.1007/s11192-010-0299-0.
- Krampen, G. (2009). Introduction and some ideas as well as visions on an open access European psychology publication platform. Psychology Science Quarterly, 51(Suppl. 1), 3–18.Google Scholar
- Krampen, G., & Schui, G. (2009). Entwicklungslinien der Psychologie in quantitative-bibliometrischer Sicht [Developmental trends of psychology in a quantitative-bibliometric perspective]. In G. Krampen (Ed.), Psychologie: Experten als Zeitzeugen [Psychology: Experts as Zeitzeugen] (pp. 19–31). Göttingen: Hogrefe.Google Scholar
- Krampen, G., Montada, L., Müller, M. M., & Schui, G. (2005). Internationalität und Internationalisierung der deutschsprachigen Psychologie [Internationality and internationalization of psychology in the German-speaking countries]. Göttingen: Hogrefe.Google Scholar
- Krampen, G., Huckert, T., & Schui, G. (2011). Impact of anglicizing former German-language psychology journals on authorships and citation freqeuncies. European Psychologist (accepted for publication).Google Scholar
- Schoepflin, U., & Müller-Brettel, M. (1990). International Journal of Behavioral Development: Scope and trends. International Journal of Behavioral Development, 13, 393–406.Google Scholar
- Wertheimer, M. j. (1970). A brief history of psychology. New York, NY: Holt, Rinehart and Winston.Google Scholar