Destinations of Admitted Out-of-State Students: A Case of One Institution
In recent years many public colleges have attempted to attract and enroll high-achieving and diverse out-of-state students. Understanding why admitted out-of-state students choose to accept or decline their offers of admission has become an important part of these institutions’ efforts to achieve their enrollment goals. In this study, out-of-state students admitted to a public research university over a period of 5 years are tracked using the National Student Clearinghouse database to establish their destination institutions. The dependent variable reflects the type of institution chosen by these students, i.e. private or public, in-state or out-of-state, 4-year or 2-year. The baseline group is composed of those out-of-state students who chose to enroll at the study institution. Mixed multinomial models are estimated using the R mlogit package. Findings indicate that the type of institution these students choose is associated with their high school performance and their parents’ educational attainment and income, as well as with the financial aid they were offered by the study institution.
KeywordsCollege choice Mixed logit Enrollment management Sociological model of status attainment Human capital theory R mlogit
I would like to thank Dr. Drew Clark and two anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions to the previous drafts of this manuscript.
- Amemiya, T. (1981). Qualitative response models: A survey. Journal of Economic Literature, 19, 1483–1536.Google Scholar
- Becker, G. S. (1964). Human capital. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
- Berge, D. A., & Hendel, D. D. (2003, Winter). Using logistic regression to guide enrollment management at a public regional university. AIR professional file. Tallahassee, FL: The Association for Institutional research.Google Scholar
- Bound, J., Braga, B., Khanna, G., & Turner, S. (2016). A passage to America: University funding and international students. NBER Working Paper, 22981. Retrieved March 20, 2018 from http://www.nber.org/papers/w22981.pdf.
- Bourdieu, P. (1986). The forms of capital. In J.G. Richardson (Ed.) Handbook of theory and research for the sociology of education (pp. 241–258). New York: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
- Braunstein, A., Mcgrath, M., & Pescatrice, D. (1999). Measuring the impact of income and financial aid offers on college enrollment decisions. Research in Higher Education, 40(3), 247–259.Google Scholar
- Bruggink, T. H., & Gambhir, V. (1996). Statistical models for college admission and enrollment: A case study for a selective liberal arts college. Research in Higher Education, 37(2), 221–240.Google Scholar
- Burd, S. (2015). The out-of-state student arms race: How public universities use merit aid to recruit nonresident students. New America. Retrieved March 15, 2017 from https://www.newamerica.org/education-policy/policy-papers/out-of-state-student-arms-race/.
- Cheng, S., & Long, S. (2007). Testing for IIA in the multinomial logit model. Sociological Methods & Research, 35(4), 583–600.Google Scholar
- Chetty, R., Hendren, N., Jones, M. R., & Porter, S. R. (2018). Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective. Retrieved March 28, 2018 from http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/assets/documents/race_paper.pdf.
- Coleman, J. S. (1988). Social capital in the creation of human capital. American Journal of Sociology, 94, S95–S120.Google Scholar
- Davies, S., & Guppy, N. (1997). Fields of study, college selectivity, and student inequalities in higher education. Social Forces, 75(4),1417–1438.Google Scholar
- Croissant, Y. (2015). Estimation of multinomial logit models in R: The mlogit packages. Retrieved March 19, 2015 from http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mlogit/vignettes/mlogit.pdf.
- DesJardins, S. L. (2002). An analytic strategy to assist institutional recruitment and marketing efforts. Research in Higher Education, 43(5), 531–553.Google Scholar
- DesJardins, S. L., Ahlburg, D. A., & McCall, B. P. (2006). An integrated model of application, admission, enrollment, and financial aid. Journal of Higher Education, 77(3), 381–429.Google Scholar
- Dow, J. K., & Endersby, J. W. (2004). Multinomial probit and multinomial logit: A comparison of choice models for voting research. Electoral Studies, 23, 107–122.Google Scholar
- Dynarski, S. (2000). Hope for whom? Financial aid for the middle class and its impact on college attendance. National Tax Journal, 53(3), 629–662.Google Scholar
- Dynarski, S. (2003). Does aid matter? Measuring the effect of student aid on college attendance and completion. American Economic Review, 93(1), 279–288.Google Scholar
- Ehrenberg, R. G. (2003). Method or madness? Inside the USNWR college rankings. Cornell University ILR School Working Papers. Retrieved on March 23, 2017 from http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/workingpapers.
- Ehrenberg, R. G., & Sherman, D. R. (1984). Optimal financial aid policies for a selective university. Journal of Human Resources, 19, 1–23.Google Scholar
- Engle, J. (2007). Postsecondary access and success for first-generation college students. American Academic, 3, 25–48.Google Scholar
- Goenner, C. F., & Pauls, K. (2006). A predictive model of inquiry to enrollment. Research in Higher Education, 47(8), 935–956.Google Scholar
- Gonyea, R. M. (2005). Self-reported data in institutional research: Review and recommendations. New Directions for Institutional Research, 127, 73–89.Google Scholar
- Hausman, Jerry A., & McFadden, Daniel. (1984). Specification tests for the multinomial logit model. Econometrica, 52, 1219–1240.Google Scholar
- Heller, D. E. (1997). Student price response in higher education: An update to Leslie and Brinkman. The Journal of Higher Education, 68, 624–659.Google Scholar
- Hillman, N. W. (2012). Tuition discounting for revenue management. Research in Higher Education, 53(3), 263–281.Google Scholar
- Hillman, N., & Weichman, T. (2016). Education deserts: The continued significance of “place” in the twenty-first century. Viewpoints: Voices from the Field. Washington, DC: American Council on Education.Google Scholar
- Hoetker, G. (2007). The use of logit and probit models in strategic management research: Critical issues. Strategic Management Journal, 28, 331–343.Google Scholar
- Holland, J. (1966). The psychology of vocational choice. Waltham: Blaisdell.Google Scholar
- Holland, J. (1973). Making vocational choices: A theory of careers. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
- Holland, J. (1987). Current status of Holland’s theory of careers: Another perspective. Career Development Quarterly, 36, 24–30.Google Scholar
- Holland, J. L. (1997). Making vocational choices: A theory of vocational personalities and work environments (3rd ed.). Odessa: Psychological Assessment Resources Inc.Google Scholar
- Hossler, D., Braxton, J., & Coopersmith, G. (1989). Understanding student college choice. In J. C. Smart (Ed.), Higher Education: Handbook of Theory and Research (Vol. 5, pp. 231–288). New York: Agathon Press.Google Scholar
- Hossler, D., & Galagher, K. S. (1987). Studying college choice: A three-phase model and the implications for policy makers. College and University, 2, 207–221.Google Scholar
- Hossler, D., Schmit, J., & Vesper, N. (1999). Going to college: How social, economic, and educational factors influence the decisions students make. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
- Hossler, D., Ziskin, M., Gross, J. P. K., Kim, S., & Cekic, O. (2009). Student aid and its role in encouraging persistence. In J. C. Smart (Ed.), Higher Education: Handbook of Theory and Research (Vol. 24, pp. 389–425). New York, NY: Springer.Google Scholar
- Hurtado, S., Inkelas, K. K., Briggs, C., & Rhee, B.-S. (1997). Differences in college access and choice among racial/ethnic groups: Identifying continuing barriers. Research in Higher Education, 38(1), 43–75.Google Scholar
- Jaquette, O., & Curs, B. R. (2015). Creating the out-of-state university: Do public universities increase nonresident freshman enrollment in response to declining state appropriations? Research in Higher Education, 56(6), 535–565.Google Scholar
- Johnson, I. Y. (2008). Enrollment, persistence and graduation of in-state students at a public research university: Does high school matter? Research in Higher Education, 49(8), 776–793.Google Scholar
- Keane, M. P. (2002). Financial aid, borrowing constraints, and college attendance: Evidence from structural estimates. American Economic Review, 92(2), 293–297.Google Scholar
- Kim, D. (2004). The effect of financial aid on students’ college choice: Differences by racial groups. Research in Higher Education, 45(1), 43–70.Google Scholar
- Kofoed, M. S. (2017). To apply or not to apply: FAFSA completion and financial aid gaps. Research in Higher Education, 58(1), 1–39.Google Scholar
- Leslie, L. L., & Brinkman, P. T. (1988). The economic value of higher education. New York: American Council on Education, MacMillan Publishing Company.Google Scholar
- Lolli, A., & Scannell, J. (1983). Expanding the focus of admissions marketing utility. College and University, 59, 5–27.Google Scholar
- Long, J. S., & Freeze, J. (2014). Regression models for categorical dependent variables using stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press.Google Scholar
- Ma, Y., & Savas, G. (2014). Which is more consequential: Fields of study or institutional selectivity? Review of Higher Education, 37(2), 221–247.Google Scholar
- Maguire, J., & Lay, R. (1981). Modeling the college choice process: Image and decision. College and University, 56, 123–139.Google Scholar
- Manski, C. F., & Wise, D. A. (1983). College choice in America. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
- McFadden, D. (1974). Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In P. Zarembka (Ed.) Frontiers of econometrics (pp. 105–142). New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
- Niu, S. X., & Tienda, M. (2008). Choosing colleges: Identifying and modeling choice sets. Social Science Research, 37(2), 416–433.Google Scholar
- Norton, E. C., Wang, H., & Ai, C. (2004). Computing interaction effects and standard errors in logit and probit models. The Stata Journal, 4(2), 154–167.Google Scholar
- Nunez, A., & Cuccaro-Alamin, S. (1998). First-generation students: Undergraduates whose parents never enrolled in postsecondary education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.Google Scholar
- Paulsen, M. B. (2001). The economics of human capital and investment in higher education. In M. B. Paulsen & J. C. Smart (Eds.), The finance of higher education: Theory, research, policy, and practice (pp. 55–94). New York: Agathon Press.Google Scholar
- Perna, L. W. (2006). Studying college access and choice: A proposed conceptual model. In J. C. Smart (Ed.), Higher education: Handbook of theory and research (Vol. XXI, pp. 99–157). New York, Y: Springer.Google Scholar
- Rizzo, M. J., & Ehrenberg, R. G. (2004). Resident and nonresident tuition and enrollment at flagship state universities. In C. M. Hoxby (Ed.), College choice: The economics of where to go, when to go, and how to pay for it. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
- Ryman, A. (2013, February 7). Colleges covet out-of-state students. USA Today. Retrieved September 1, 2015 from http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/02/07/arizona-colleges-out-of-state-students/1899499/.
- Smith, C. (2018, April). Why historically black colleges are enjoying a renaissance? National Geographic, “The Race Issue”.Google Scholar
- St. John, E. P. (1990). Price response in enrollment decisions: An analysis of the high school and beyond sophomore cohort. Research in Higher Education, 31(2), 161–176.Google Scholar
- St. John, E. P. (1993). Untangling the web: Using price-response measures in enrollment projections. Journal of Higher Education, 64(6), 676–695.Google Scholar
- St. John, E. P., Hu, S., & Tuttle, T. (2000). Persistence by undergraduates in an urban public university: Understanding the effects of financial aid. NASFAA Journal of Student Financial Aid, 30(2), 23–37.Google Scholar
- St. John, E. P., & Somers, P. A. (1993). Assessing the impact of financial aid offers on enrollment decisions. Journal of Student Financial Aid, 23(3), 7–12.Google Scholar
- Thistlethwaite, D., & Campbell, D. (1960). Regression–discontinuity analysis: An alternative to the ex post facto experiment. Journal of Educational Psychology, 51, 309–317.Google Scholar
- Thomas, E., Dawes, W., Reznik, & G. (2001, Winter). Using predictive modeling to target student recruitment: Theory and practice. AIR Professional File. Tallahassee, FL: The Association for Institutional research.Google Scholar
- Train, K. E. (2009). Discrete choice models with simulation. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Train, K., & Croissant, Y. (2015). Kenneth Train’s exercises using the mlogit package for R. Retrieved March 19, 2015 from http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mlogit/vignettes/Exercises.pdf.
- Van Der Klaauw, W. (2002). Estimating the effect of financial aid offers on college enrollment: A regression–discontinuity approach. International Economic Review, 43, 1249–1287.Google Scholar
- Welki, A. M., & Navratil, F. J. (1987). The role of applicants’ perceptions in the choice of college. College and University, 62, 147–160.Google Scholar
- Wolniak, G. C., & Engberg, M. E. (2007). The effects of high school feeder networks on college enrollment. The Review of Higher Education, 31(1), 27–53.Google Scholar
- National Student Clearinghouse (n.d.). StudentTracker Frequently Asked Questions. Retrieved from http://www.studentclearinghouse.org/colleges/studenttracker/faqs.php).
- Zemsky, R., & Oedel, P. (1983). The structure of college choice. New York: College Entrance Examination Board.Google Scholar