Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting

, Volume 36, Issue 2, pp 153–205

Model uncertainty, performance persistence and flows

Original Research


Model uncertainty makes it difficult to draw clear inference about mutual fund performance persistence. I propose a new performance measure, Bayesian model averaged (BMA) alpha, which explicitly accounts for model uncertainty. Using BMA alphas, I find evidence of performance persistence in a large sample of US funds. There is a positive and asymmetric relation between flows and past BMA alphas, suggesting that fund investors respond to the information in BMA alphas. My findings are robust to various sensitivity analyses, including alternative measures of post-ranking performance, flows and total net assets, and alternative econometric model specifications.


Mutual funds Performance persistence Flows Model uncertainty 

JEL Classification

G2 G11 C11 C52 

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.AA208, School of ManagementSUNY, Binghamton UniversityBinghamtonUSA

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