The effect of violent crime on teenage pregnancy in Mexico
- 65 Downloads
This paper explores the effect of violent crime on teenage pregnancy in Mexico using data from a nationally representative longitudinal survey conducted before and after an unexpected surge in violence. In order to identify the effects, we use a triple difference-in-differences strategy exploiting variation in (i) exposure to the surge in violence between sample periods, (ii) the intensity of violence as measured by municipal homicide rates, and (iii) age of different cohorts. We find that the average increase in homicide rates over the study period reduced the probability of teenage pregnancy by approximately 1.5%. We also demonstrate that the effect is more acute among women with worse economic conditions prior to the surge in violence. Analysis of mechanisms shows that reductions in teenage pregnancy is partly explained by changes in the sexual behavior of young women.
KeywordsViolent crime Teenage pregnancy Difference-in-differences Mexico
JEL classificationJ13 D74 K42 I31
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
- Adsera, A., & Menendez, A. (2009). Fertility changes in Latin America in the context of economic uncertainty. IZA DP No. 4019.Google Scholar
- Beleche, T. (2017). Domestic violence laws and suicide in Mexico. Review of Economics of the Household, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-017-9362-4.
- Brown, R., Montalva, V., Thomas, D., & Velásquez, A. (2017). Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War. NBER Working Paper No. 23181. Available at.Google Scholar
- Brown, R, V Montalva, D Thomas, and A Velásquez. 2017. Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion : Evidence from the Mexican Drug War. NBER Working Paper No. 23181. Available at.Google Scholar
- Becker, G. S. (1960). An Economic Analysis of Fertility. Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
- Cortes, D., Gallego J., & Maldonado, D. (2011). On the design of education conditional cash transfer programs and non education outcomes: The case of teenage pregnancy. CESifo Working Paper No.3531. Available at. Google Scholar
- Coscia, M., & Rios, V. (2012). Knowing where and how criminal organizations operate using web content. CIKM 12 (October–November).Google Scholar
- Fairlie, R, and C Woodruff. 2005. Mexican Entrepreneurship: A Comparison of Selfemployment in Mexico and the United States. NBER Working Paper Series #11527.Google Scholar
- Gunes, P.M., & Tsaneva, M. (2016). The effects of early pregnancy on physical health and mental distress: Evidence from Mexico.Working Paper. Available at.Google Scholar
- Hamoudi, A., & Thomas, D. (2006). Do you care? Altruism and inter-generational exchanges in Mexico. CCPR-008-06.Google Scholar
- Jakiela, P., & Ozier, O. (2015). The impact of culture on well-being: Evidence from a natural experiment. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10902-015-9633-9.
- Kirby, D. (2001). Emerging answers: New research findings on programs to reduce teen pregnancy. Washington, DC: National Campaign to Prevent Teen Pregnancy.Google Scholar
- Michaelson, MM. 2012. Mental Health and Labour Supply. Evidence from Mexico‘s Ongoing Violent Conflicts. Ruhr Economic Papers #378.Google Scholar
- Manian, S. 2015. Risk Vulnerability and Health Behavior: Evidence from Mexico’s Drug War. Working Paper. Available at.Google Scholar
- Nasir, M., Rockmore, M., & Tan, C.M. (2015). It’s no spring break in Cancun: The effects of exposure to violence on risk preferences, pro-social behavior, and mental health. Workingpaper. Available at.Google Scholar
- OECD. (2016). OECD reviews of health systems: Mexico. Paris: OECD Publishing.Google Scholar
- Sosa-Rubí, S. G., Galárraga, O., & Harris, J. E. (2009). Heterogeneous impact of the ‘Seguro Popular’ program on the utilization of obstetrical services in Mexico, 2001–2006: A multinomial probit model with a discrete endogenous variable. Journal of Health Economics, 28(1), 20–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2008.08.002.Heterogeneous.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- UNODC (2011). Global study on homicide.Google Scholar
- UNODC. 2006. World Drug Report.Google Scholar
- Velásquez, A. 2015. The Economic Burden of Crime: Evidence from Mexico. Working Paper. Available at.Google Scholar
- WDI. 2017. World Development Indicators. Available at.Google Scholar