The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics

, Volume 58, Issue 2, pp 290–309 | Cite as

Modelling UK House Prices with Structural Breaks and Conditional Variance Analysis

  • Kyriaki BegiaziEmail author
  • Paraskevi Katsiampa


This paper differs from previous research by examining the existence of structural breaks in the UK regional house prices as well as in the prices of the different property types (flats, terraced, detached and semi-detached houses) in the UK as a whole, motivated by the uncertainty in the UK housing market and various financial events that may lead to structural changes within the housing market. Our paper enhances the conventional unit root tests by allowing for structural breaks, while including structural break tests strengthens our analysis. Our empirical results support the existence of structural breaks in the mean equation in seven out of thirteen regions of the UK as well as in three out of four property types, and in the variance equation in six regions and three property types. In addition, using a multivariate GARCH approach we examine both the behaviour of variances and covariances of the house price returns over time. Our results have significant implications for appropriate economic policy selection and investment management.


UK regions House prices Structural break Volatility MGARCH BEKK 

JEL Classification

C22 C32 G1 R15 



The authors gratefully acknowledge the valuable comments and suggestions of two anonymous referees.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Accounting, Finance and EconomicsOxford Brookes UniversityOxfordUK
  2. 2.Sheffield Business SchoolSheffield Hallam UniversitySheffieldUK

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