Why the Housing Sector Leads the Whole Economy: The Importance of Collateral Constraints and News Shocks
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This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic partial equilibrium model for explaining residential investment dynamics in the United States, focusing on the distinctive cyclical features of residential investment in that it leads the whole economy. This paper is different from the existing literature by adding three new features to the model: news shocks, collateral constraints and agent heterogeneity. The partial equilibrium analysis where interest rates are exogenously fixed shows that these assumptions are essential to generating the dynamic pattern in which residential investment leads consumption and GDP.