Frothy Housing Markets and Local Stock-Price Movements

Article

Abstract

Prior empirical research finds habitat effects manifest in stock pricing among firms that share headquarters cities. We empirically investigate whether trends in residential real estate prices affect headquarters-city stock pricing phenomena for companies across U.S. metro areas for 1989–2004. Specifically, we hypothesize that stocks of firms headquartered in ‘hot’ residential real estate markets experience higher returns compared to stocks of firms from ‘cold’ markets. We also hypothesize that stocks of firms headquartered in hot real estate markets display stronger return comovement with same-city stocks. We find support for these hypotheses during the 1999–2004 sample period which coincides with the start of the housing bubble of the 2000 s; we find mixed results in earlier periods. Our findings indicate that city-specific home price patterns conditionally affect stock pricing of local firms, suggesting that investor behavior is influenced by localized shocks to household real estate wealth.

Keywords

Residential real estate Wealth effects Return comovement Headquarters city effect Household finance 

References

  1. Ambrose, B., Lee, D. W., & Peek, J. (2007). Comovement after joining an index: spillovers of nonfundamental effects. Real Estate Economics, 35(1), 57–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Anderson, C. W., & Beracha, E. (2008). Robustness of the headquarters-city effect in stock returns. Journal of Financial Research, 31(3), 271–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Anderson, C. W., & Beracha, E. (2010). Home-price sensitivity to capital market factors: analysis of zip code level data. Journal of Real Estate Research, 32(2), 161–185.Google Scholar
  4. Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Wurgler, J. (2005). Comovement. Journal of Financial Economics, 75(2), 283–317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Barker, D., & Loughran, T. (2007). The geography of S&P 500 stock returns. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 8(4), 177–190.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Benjamin, J. D., & Chinloy, P. (2008). Home equity, household savings, and consumption. Journal of Real Estate Research, 37(1), 21–32.Google Scholar
  7. Benjamin, J. D., Chinloy, P., & Jud, G. D. (2004a). Why do households concentrate their wealth in housing? Journal of Real Estate Research, 26(4), 329–343.Google Scholar
  8. Benjamin, J. D., Chinloy, P., & Jud, G. D. (2004b). Real estate versus financial wealth in consumption. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 29(3), 341–354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Beracha, E., & Hirschey, M. (2009). When will housing recover? Financial Analysts Journal, 65(2), 36–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Bostic, R., Gabriel, S., & Painter, G. (2009). Housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumption: new evidence from micro data. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 39, 79–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Bucks, B., & Pence, K. (2006). Do homeowners know their house values and mortgage terms? Working paper, Federal Reserve Board of Governors.Google Scholar
  12. Calhoun, C. A. (1996). OFHEO house price indexes: HPI technical description. Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.Google Scholar
  13. Campbell, J., & Cocco, J. (2007). How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, 591–621.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Cannon, S., Miller, N. G., & Pandher, G. (2006). Risk and return in the U.S. housing market: a cross-sectional asset-pricing approach. Real Estate Economics, 34(4), 519–552.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Carroll, C. D., Otsuka, M., & Slacalek, J. (2006). How large is the housing wealth effect? A new approach. Working paper, John Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.Google Scholar
  16. Case, K. E., & Shiller, R. F. (1989). The efficiency of the market for single family homes. The American Economic Review, 79(1), 125–137.Google Scholar
  17. Case, K. E., & Shiller, R. F. (2003). Is there a bubble in the housing market? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 299–342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Case, K. E., Quigley, J., & Shiller, R. F. (2003). Home buyers, housing, and the macroeconomy. Working paper presented at the 2003 Reserve Bank of Australia’s Conference on Asset Prices and Monetary Policy.Google Scholar
  19. Case, K. E., Quigley, J., & Shiller, R. F. (2005). Comparing wealth effects: the stock market versus the housing market. Advances in Macroeconomics, 5(1), 1–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Chan, K., Covrig, V., & Ng, L. (2005). What determines the domestic bias and foreign bias? Evidence from mutual fund equity allocations worldwide. Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1495–1534.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Clapham, E., Englund, P., Quigley, J., & Redfearn, C. (2005). Revisiting the past and settling the score: Index revision for house price derivatives. Working paper No. W04–005, Berkley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Institute of Business and Economic Research, University of California-Berkley.Google Scholar
  22. Cocco, J. F. (2004). Portfolio choice in the presence of housing. Review of Financial Studies, 18(2), 535–567.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Coval, J. D., & Moskowitz, T. J. (1999). Home bias at home: local equity preference in domestic portfolios. Journal of Finance, 54(6), 2045–2073.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Dahlquist, M., Pinkowitz, L., Stulz, R. M., & Williamson, R. (2003). Corporate governance, investor protection, and the home bias. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 38(1), 87–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Flavin, M., & Yamashita, T. (2002). Owner occupied housing and the composition of the household portfolio. The American Economic Review, 92(1), 345–362.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. French, K. R., & Poterba, J. M. (1991). Investor diversification and international equity markets. The American Economic Review, 81(2), 222–226.Google Scholar
  27. Greenspan, A. (2005). The economic outlook: Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, June 9, 2005: http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2005/.
  28. Greenspan, A., & Kennedy, J. (2005). Estimates of home mortgage originations, repayments, and debt on one-to-four-family residences. Working paper, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
  29. Himmelberg, C., Mayer, C., & Sinai, T. (2005). Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19(4), 67–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Hong, H., Kubick, J. D., & Stein, J. C. (2004). Social interaction and stock market participation. Journal of Finance, 59(1), 137–163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Hong, H., Kubick, J. D., & Stein, J. C. (2005). Thy neighbor’s portfolio: word of mouth effects in the holdings and trades of money managers. Journal of Finance, 60(6), 2801–2824.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Hong, H., Kubick, J. D., & Stein, J. C. (2008). The only game in town: stock-price consequences of local bias. Journal of Financial Economics, 90(1), 20–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Huberman, G. (2001). Familiarity breeds investment. Review of Financial Studies, 14(3), 659–680.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Kang, J. K., & Stulz, R. M. (1997). Why is there a home bias? An analysis of foreign portfolio equity ownership in Japan. Journal of Financial Economics, 46(1), 3–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Keloharju, M., & Grinblatt, M. (2001). How distance, language, and culture influence stockholdings and trades. Journal of Finance, 56(3), 1053–1073.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Kishor, N. K. (2007). Does consumption respond more to housing wealth than to financial market wealth? If so, why? Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 35(4), 427–428.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Kullman, C. (2003). Real estate and its role in asset pricing. Working paper, University of British Columbia.Google Scholar
  38. Kullman, C., & Siegel, S. (2007). Real estate and its role in household portfolio choice. Working paper, University of Washington.Google Scholar
  39. Kumar, A., & Lee, C. M. C. (2006). Retail investor sentiment and return comovements. Journal of Finance, 61(5), 2451–2486.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Le Blanc, D., & Lagarenne, C. (2004). Owner-occupied housing and the composition of the household portfolio: the case of France. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 29(3), 259–275.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Loughran, T., & Schultz, P. (2004). Weather, stock returns, and the impact of localized trading behavior. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39(2), 343–364.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Loughran, T., & Schultz, P. (2005). Liquidity: urban versus rural firms. Journal of Financial Economics, 78(2), 341–374.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Miller, N., Peng, L., & Sklarz, M. (2010). House prices and economic growth. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Forthcoming. doi: 10.1007/s11146-009-9197-8.
  44. Ozsolyev, H. N. (2006). Asset pricing implications of social networks. Working paper, Oxford University.Google Scholar
  45. Palia, D., Qi, Y., & Wu, Y. (2009). The importance of background risks. Working paper, available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=986489.
  46. Piazzesi, M., Schneider, M., & Tuzel, S. (2007). Housing, consumption, and asset pricing. Journal of Financial Economics, 83(3), 531–569.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Pirinsky, C., & Wang, Q. (2006). Does corporate headquarters location matter for stock returns? Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1991–2015.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Quan, D., & Titman, S. (1999). Do real estate prices and stock prices move together? An international analysis. Real Estate Economics, 27(2), 183–207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Slacalek, J. (2009). What drives personal consumption? The role of housing and financial wealth. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 9(1), Article 37. doi: 10.2202/1935-1690.1555.
  50. Yao, R., & Zhang, H. (2005). Optimal consumption and portfolio choices with risky housing and borrowing constraints. Review of Financial Studies, 18(1), 197–239.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Zhu, N. (2003). The local bias of individual investors. Working paper, Yale School of Management.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.The School of BusinessUniversity of KansasLawrenceUSA
  2. 2.College of BusinessEast Carolina UniversityGreenvilleUSA

Personalised recommendations