An Improved Fixed-Rate Mortgage Valuation Methodology with Interacting Prepayment and Default Options
- 228 Downloads
- 12 Citations
Abstract
This paper considers in detail a realistic mortgage valuation model (including the potential for early prepayment and the risk of default), based on stochastic house-price and interest-rate models. As well as the development of a highly accurate numerical scheme to tackle the resulting partial differential equations, this paper also exploits singular perturbation theory (a mathematically rigorous procedure, based on the idea of the smallness of the volatilities), whereby mortgage valuation can be accurately approximated by very simple closed-form solutions. Determination of equilibrium contract rates, previously requiring many computational hours is reduced to just a few seconds, rendering this a highly useful portfolio management tool; these approximations compare favorably with the full numerical solutions. The method is of wide applicability in US or other mortgage markets and is demonstrated for UK fixed-rate mortgages, including insurance and coinsurance.
Keywords
Fixed-rate mortgages Option pricing theory Perturbation theory Prepayment DefaultPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
- Azevedo-Pereira, J. A. (1997). Fixed Rate Mortgage Valuation Using a Contingent Claims Approach. PhD thesis, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.Google Scholar
- Azevedo-Pereira, J. A., Newton, D. P., & Paxson, D. A. (2000). Numerical solution of a two state variable contingent claims mortgage valuation model. Portuguese Review of Financial Markets, 3, 35–65.Google Scholar
- Azevedo-Pereira, J. A., Newton, D. P., & Paxson, D. A. (2002). UK fixed rate repayment mortgage and mortgage indemnity valuation. Real Estate Economics, 30, 185–211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Azevedo-Pereira, J. A., Newton, D. P., & Paxson., D. A. (2003). Fixed rate endowment mortgage and mortgage indemnity valuation. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 26, 197–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Brunson, A. L., Kau, J. B., & Keenan, D. C. (2001). A fixed-rate mortgage valuation model in three state variables. Journal of Fixed Income, 11, 17–27.Google Scholar
- Buser, S.A, & Hendershott, P. H. (1984). Pricing default-free fixed rate mortgages. Housing Finance Review, 3, 405–429.Google Scholar
- Chatterjee, A., Edmister, R. O., & Hatfield, G. B. (1998). An empirical investigation of alternative contingent claims models for pricing residential mortgages. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17, 139–162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Collin-Dufresne, P., & Harding, J. P. (1999). A closed form formula for valuing mortgages. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 19, 133–146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Cox, J. C., Ingersoll, J. E., & Ross, S. A. (1979). Duration and the measurement of basis risk. Journal of Business, 52, 51–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Cox, J. C., Ingersoll, J. E., & Ross, S. A. (1981). A re-examination of traditional hypotheses about the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance, 36, 769–799.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Cox, J. C., Ingersoll, J. E., & Ross, S. A. (1985a). An inter-temporal general equilibrium model of asset prices. Econometrica, 53, 363–384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Cox, J. C., Ingersoll, J. E., & Ross, S. A. (1985b). A theory of the term structure of interest rates. Econometrica, 53, 385–407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Crank, J. (1984). Free and Moving Boundary Problems. Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK.Google Scholar
- Downing, C., Stanton, R., & Wallace, N. (2005). An empirical test of a two-factor mortgage valuation model: How much do house prices matter? Real Estate Economics, 33, 681–710.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Epperson, J. F., Kau, J. B., Keenan, D. C., & Muller III., W. J. (1985). Pricing default risk in mortgages. AREUEA Journal, 13, 152–167.Google Scholar
- Foster, C., & Van Order, R. (1984). An option-based model of mortgage default. Housing Finance Review, 3, 351–372.Google Scholar
- Foster, C., & Van Order, R. (1985). FHA terminations: A prelude to rational mortgage pricing. AREUEA Journal, 13, 273–291.Google Scholar
- Garabedian, P. R. (1998). Partial Differential Equations. AMS Chelsea Publishing, Rhode Island.Google Scholar
- Holmes, M. H. (1995). Introduction to Perturbation Methods. Springer, New York.Google Scholar
- Kalotay, A., Yang, D., & Fabozzi, F. J. (2004). An option-theoretic prepayment model for mortgages and mortgage-backed securities. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 7, 949–978.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Kau, J. B., Keenan, D. C., Muller III, W. J., & Epperson, J. F. (1992). A generalized valuation model for fixed-rate residential mortgages. Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 24, 279–299.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Kau, J. B., Keenan, D. C., Muller III, W. J., & Epperson, J. F. (1995). The value at origination of fixed-rate mortgages with default and prepayment. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 11, 5–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Kevorkian, J., & Cole, J. D. (1996). Multiple Scale and Singular Perturbation Methods. Heidelberg, Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
- Longstaff, F. A. (2005). Borrower credit and the valuation of mortgage-backed securities. Real Estate Economics, 33, 619–661.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Merton, R. C. (1973). The theory of rational option pricing. Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 4, 141–183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Nayfeh, A. H. (2000). Perturbation Methods. New York, Wiley Classic Series.Google Scholar
- Pliska, S. R. (2005). Mortgage Valuation and Optimal Refinancing. Stochastic Finance: Proceedings of a 2004 Conference in Lisbon, Portugal, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg.Google Scholar
- Schwartz, E. S., & Torous, W. N. (1989). Prepayment and the valuation of mortgage backed securities. Journal of Finance, 44, 375–392.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Schwartz, E. S., & Torous, W. N. (1992). Prepayment, default and the valuation of mortgage pass-through securities. Journal of Business, 65, 221–239.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Titman, S. D., & Torous, W. N. (1989). Valuing commercial mortgages: an empirical investigation of the contingent-claims approach to pricing risky debt. The Journal of Finance, 44, 345–373.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- van Dyke, M. (1975) Perturbation Methods in Fluid Mechanics. Palo Alto, California: Parabolic Press.Google Scholar
- Vandell, K. D. (1995). How ruthless is mortgage default? A review and synthesis of the evidence. Journal of Housing Research, 6, 245–264.Google Scholar
- Widdicks, M., Duck, P. W., Andricopoulos, A. D., & Newton, D. P. (2005). The black-scholes equation revisited: Asymptotic expansions and singular perturbations. Mathematical Finance, 15, 373–391.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Wilmott, P., Dewynne, J. N., & Howison, S. (1993). Option Pricing: Mathematical Models and Computation. Oxford Financial Press, Oxford, UK.Google Scholar