Terrorist group survival: ideology, tactics, and base of operations
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The paper applies survival analysis to identify the determinants of terrorist group duration. Our sample includes 367 terrorist organizations that operated during 1970–2007. Consistent with the theory, determinants of these groups’ survival include their tactics, sizes, ideological basis, regions of operation, and base-country characteristics. Cross-sectional and panel estimates are reported. Terrorist organizations fare better if they are larger in size, diversify their attack modes, are animated by religiosity rather than secular political goals, and base their operations in the Middle East or Africa. Groups’ longevity is bolstered by democratic institutions and an intermediate level of ethnic fractionalization at home.
KeywordsTerrorist group survival Terrorist tactics Terrorist groups’ ideology Panel estimates Cross-sectional estimates
JEL ClassificationD74 C41 H56
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