Choosing a runoff election threshold
- 160 Downloads
This paper investigates when a runoff election is desirable and when a plurality result is good enough. A runoff election increases the likelihood that the Condorcet winner will be elected but also entails additional costs. The metric for determining whether a runoff election is desirable will be the probability that the winner of the plurality election would win an ensuing runoff. Statistical models of voter behavior are developed that estimate this probability, which are verified with runoff-election data from United States elections. The models allow governments to make more informed choices in creating rules to decide when to hold runoff elections.
KeywordsRunoff elections Mathematical modeling
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Berger, J., & Berliner, L.M. (1986). Robust Bayes and Empirical Bayes Analysis with -Contaminated Priors. Annals of Statistics, 14, 461–486.Google Scholar
- Bullock, C.S. III, & Johnson, L.K. (1992). Runoff elections in the United States. University of North Carolina Press: Chapel Hill.Google Scholar
- Bullock, C.S. III, & Gaddie, R.K. (1994). Runoffs in Jesse Jackson's backyard. Social Science Quarterly, 75, 446–454.Google Scholar
- Colomer, J.M. (2004). The Americas: General overview. In J.M. Colomer (ed.) Handbook of electoral system choice. Palgrave Macmillan: New York.Google Scholar
- Evans, M., Hastings, N., & Peacock, B. (2000). Statistical distributions. J. Wiley & Sons: New York.Google Scholar
- Jones, Mark P. (1994). Presidential Election Laws and Multipartism in Latin America. Political Research Quarterly, 47, 41–57.Google Scholar
- Merrill, S. III (1988). Making multicandidate elections more democratic. Princeton University Press: Princeton.Google Scholar
- O'Neill, J.C. (2006). Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count: The right to vote and the choice of a voting system. Michigan State Law Review forthcoming.Google Scholar
- Riker, W.H. (1988). Liberalism against populism. Waveland Press: Prospect Heights, Illinois.Google Scholar