, Volume 42, Issue 6, pp 967–984 | Cite as

Potential changes to travel behaviors & patterns: a fuzzy cognitive map modeling approach

  • Rachel Vogt
  • Haizhong WangEmail author
  • Brian Gregor
  • Alex Bettinardi


The future of travel will be affected by a number of disruptive changes, including advancements in vehicle technology, such as automated vehicles, changes in population demographics and the economy, and lifestyle changes. It is difficult to say just how much each change will affect the amount and type of travel in the future, especially given the amount of uncertainty there is regarding the trajectory of these changes and their effects. The authors examined changes that are likely to affect transportation behaviors in the future, developed a “fuzzy cognitive map” (FCM) of the relationships, and used the FCM model to investigate the effects of those relationships. The results of the study show that FCM models offer a promising method for transportation planners to enhance their ability to reason about system effects when quantitative information is limited and uncertain. More specifically, the results provide some initial guidance on the potential impacts of disruptive changes on future travel, which may help in targeting limited research funds on the most consequential potential changes.


Travel behavior Fuzzy logic Demand modeling Modeling Cognitive map 



The authors of this paper would like to thank the Technical Advisory Committee with all their help in providing key insights and developing the FCM model. Their assistance in developing the initial assumptions of elasticities and starting values in the model were invaluable and were significant in helping improve the quality of the model. The authors are grateful for the financial support of the Oregon DOT through the projects: Potential Changes to Travel Behavior or Patterns in the Next 20–40 years: Phase I and II.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Rachel Vogt
    • 1
  • Haizhong Wang
    • 1
    Email author
  • Brian Gregor
    • 2
  • Alex Bettinardi
    • 3
  1. 1.School of Civil and Construction EngineeringOregon State UniversityCorvallisUSA
  2. 2.Oregon Systems Analytics LLCSalemUSA
  3. 3.Transportation Planning and Analysis UnitOregon Department of TransportationSalemUSA

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