Agent-based optimisation of public transport supply and pricing: impacts of activity scheduling decisions and simulation randomness
- 562 Downloads
- 6 Citations
Abstract
The optimal setting of public transport pricing and supply levels has been traditionally analysed with analytical models that combine the objectives of users, service providers and decision makers in optimisation problems. In this paper, public transport fare and headway are jointly optimised using an activity-based simulation framework. Unlike traditional analytical models that find single optimal values for headway, fare and other optimisation variables, we obtain a range of values for the optimal fare and headway, due to the randomness in user behaviour that is inherent to an agent-based approach. Waiting times and implications of an active bus capacity constraint are obtained on an agent-by-agent basis. The maximisation of operator profit or social welfare result in different combinations of the most likely optimal headway and fare. We show that the gap between welfare and profit optimal solutions is smaller when users can adjust their departure time according to their activities, timetabling and convenience of the public transport service.
Keywords
Agent-based simulation Randomness Public transport supply Optimal pricing Social welfare Operator profitNotes
Acknowledgments
We are indebted to Kai Nagel for his helpful comments and support to the development of this project and to three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions. Alejandro Tirachini acknowledges support from Fondecyt, Chile (Grant 11130227) and the Complex Engineering Systems Institute (Grants ICM P-05-004-F, CONICYT FBO16). Previous versions of this paper were presented at the Kuhmo-Nectar Conference on Transportation Economics in Berlin, July 2012 (Kickhöfer et al. 2012) and the Latsis Symposium in Lausanne, September 2012 (Kaddoura et al. 2012).
References
- Ahn, K.: Road pricing and bus service policies. J. Transp. Econ. Policy 43, 25–53 (2009)Google Scholar
- Arnott, R., Yan, A.: The two-mode problem: second-best pricing and capacity. Rev. Urban Reg. Dev. Stud. 12, 170–199 (2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- ATC: National guidelines for transport system management in Australia. Technical Report. Australian Transport Council (2006)Google Scholar
- Baskaran, R., Krishnaiah, K.: Simulation model to determine frequency of a single bus route with single and multiple headways. Int. J. Bus. Perform. Supply Chain Model. 4, 40–59 (2012)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Basso, L.J., Silva, H.E.: Efficiency and substitutability of transit subsidies and other urban transport policies. Am. Econ. J. Econ. Policy (2014), forthcomingGoogle Scholar
- Basso, L., Guevara, C.A., Gschwender, A., Fuster, M.: Congestion pricing, transit subsidies and dedicated bus lanes: efficient and practical solutions to congestion. Transp. Policy 18, 676–684 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Cetin, N., Burri, A., Nagel, K.: A large-scale agent-based traffic microsimulation based on queue model. In: Proceedings of the Swiss Transport Research Conference (STRC), Monte Verita, CH. See www.strc.ch. Earlier version, with inferior performance values: Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2003 paper number 03-4272 (2003)
- Chang, S.K., Schonfeld, P.M.: Multiple period optimization of bus transit systems. Transp. Res. B 25, 453–478 (1991). doi: 10.1016/0191-2615(91)90038-K CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Charypar, D., Nagel, K.: Generating complete all-day activity plans with genetic algorithms. Transportation 32, 369–397 (2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- de Borger, B., Wouters, S.: Transport externalities and optimal pricing and supply decisions in urban transportation: a simulation analysis for Belgium. Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. 28, 163–197 (1998)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Dodgson, J.S., Topham, N.: Benefit–cost rules for urban transit subsidies: an integration of allocational, distributional and public finance issues. J. Transp. Econ. Policy 21, 57–71 (1987)Google Scholar
- Fernández, R.: Modelling public transport stops by microscopic simulation. Transp. Res. C 18, 856–868 (2010)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Fernández, R., Tyler, N.: Effect of passenger–bus–traffic interactions on bus stop operations. Transp. Plan. Technol. 28, 273–292 (2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Gawron, C.: An iterative algorithm to determine the dynamic user equilibrium in a traffic simulation model. Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 9, 393–407 (1998)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Horni, A., Charypar, D., Axhausen, K.W.: Variability in transport microsimulations investigated for MATSim: preliminary results. In: Proceedings of the 11th Swiss Transport Research Conference (STRC) (2011)Google Scholar
- Horni, A., Nagel, K., Axhausen, K.: High-resolution destination choice in agent-based demand models. In: Annual Meeting Preprint 12-1989. Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC. Also VSP WP 11-17, see www.vsp.tu-berlin.de/publications (2012)
- Jansson, J.O.: A simple bus line model for optimisation of service frequency and bus size. J. Transp. Econ. Policy 14, 53–80 (1980)Google Scholar
- Jansson, K.: Public transport policy with and without road pricing. In: 5th Kuhmo-Nectar Conference on Transport Economics (2010)Google Scholar
- Jara-Díaz, S.R., Gschwender, A.: Towards a general microeconomic model for the operation of public transport. Transp. Rev. 23, 453–469 (2003). doi: 10.1080/0144164032000048922 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Jara-Díaz, S.R., Gschwender, A.: The effect of financial constraints on the optimal design of public transport services. Transportation 36, 65–75 (2009)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Kaddoura, I., Kickhöfer, B., Neumann, A., Tirachini, A.: Public transport supply optimization in an activity-based model: impacts of activity scheduling decisions and dynamic congestion. In: Latsis Symposium 2012—1st European Symposium on Quantitative Methods in Transportation Systems, Lausanne, Switzerland. Also VSP WP 12-17, see www.vsp.tu-berlin.de/publications (2012)
- Kickhöfer, B., Grether, D., Nagel, K.: Income-contingent user preferences in policy evaluation: application and discussion based on multi-agent transport simulations. Transportation 38, 849–870 (2011). doi: 10.1007/s11116-011-9357-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Kickhöfer, B., Kaddoura, I., Neumann, A., Tirachini, A.: Optimal public transport supply in an agent-based model: the influence of departure time choice on operator’s profit and social welfare. In: Proceedings of the Kuhmo Nectar Conference on Transportation Economics. Also VSP WP 12-05, see www.vsp.tu-berlin.de/publications (2012)
- Kickhöfer, B., Hülsmann, F., Gerike, R., Nagel, K.: Rising car user costs: comparing aggregated and geo-spatial impacts on travel demand and air pollutant emissions. In: Vanoutrive, T., Verhetsel, A. (eds.) Smart Transport Networks: Decision Making, Sustainability and Market structure. NECTAR Series on Transportation and Communications Networks Research, pp. 180–207. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. (2013)Google Scholar
- Kraus, M.: Discomfort externalities and marginal cost transit fares. J. Urban Econ. 29, 249–259 (1991)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Kraus, M.: A new look at the two-mode problem. J. Urban Econ. 54, 511–530 (2003)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Kraus, M., Yoshida, Y.: The commuter’s time-of-use decision and optimal pricing and service in urban mass transit. J. Urban Econ. 51, 170–195 (2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Mohring, H.: Optimization and scale economics in urban bus transportation. Am. Econ. Rev. 62, 591–604 (1972)Google Scholar
- Nelson, P., Baglino, A., Harrington, W., Safirova, E.: Transit in Washington, DC: current benefits and optimal level of provision. J. Urban Econ. Lett. 62, 231–251 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Neumann, A.: A paratransit-inspired evolutionary process for public transit network design. PhD thesis, TU Berlin. Also VSP WP 14-13, see www.vsp.tu-berlin.de/publications (2014)
- Neumann, A., Nagel, K.: Avoiding bus bunching phenomena from spreading: a dynamic approach using a multi-agent simulation framework. VSP Working Paper, 10-08. TU Berlin, Transport Systems Planning and Transport Telematics. See www.vsp.tu-berlin.de/publications (2010)
- Neumann, A., Balmer, M., Rieser, M.: Converting a static trip-based model into a dynamic activity-based model to analyze public transport demand in Berlin. In: Roorda, M.J., Miller, E.J. (eds.) Travel Behaviour Research: Current Foundations, Future Prospects, chap. 7, pp. 151–176. International Association for Travel Behaviour Research (IATBR) (2014)Google Scholar
- Oldfield, R.H., Bly, P.H.: An analytic investigation of optimal bus size. Transp. Res. B 22, 319–337 (1988). doi: 10.1016/0191-2615(88)90038-0 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Parry, I.W.H., Small, K.A.: Should urban transit subsidies be reduced? Am. Econ. Rev. 99, 700–724 (2009)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Pels, E., Verhoef, E.T.: Infrastructure pricing and competition between modes in urban transport. Environ. Plan. A 39, 2119–2138 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Raney, B., Nagel, K.: An improved framework for large-scale multi-agent simulations of travel behaviour. In: Rietveld, P., Jourquin, B., Westin, K. (eds.) Towards Better Performing European Transportation Systems, pp. 305–347. Routledge, London (2006)Google Scholar
- Rieser, M.: Adding transit to an agent-based transportation simulation concepts and implementation. PhD Thesis, TU Berlin. Also VSP WP 10-05, see www.vsp.tu-berlin.de/publications (2010)
- Tabuchi, T.: Bottleneck congestion and modal split. J. Urban Econ. 34, 414–431 (1993)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Tirachini, A., Hensher, D.A.: Bus congestion, optimal infrastructure investment and the choice of a fare collection system in dedicated bus corridors. Transp. Res. B 45, 828–844 (2011). doi: 10.1016/j.trb.2011.02.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Tirachini, A., Hensher, D.A.: Multimodal transport pricing: first best, second best and extensions to non-motorized transport. Transp. Rev. 32, 181–202 (2012)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Tirachini, A., Hensher, D.A., Rose, J.M.: Multimodal pricing and optimal design of urban public transport: the interplay between traffic congestion and bus crowding. Transp. Res. B 61, 33–54 (2014)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Vickrey, W.: Congestion theory and transport investment. Am. Econ. Rev. 59, 251–260 (1969)Google Scholar
- Wright, L., Hook, W.: Bus Rapid Transit Planning Guide. Technical Report. ITDP, Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, New York (2007)Google Scholar