Population Research and Policy Review

, Volume 36, Issue 6, pp 871–901 | Cite as

An Alternative to Fixed Transition Probabilities for the Projection of Interprovincial Migration in Canada

Original Research


Internal migration plays a critical role in subnational population projections. The multiregional model is often seen as a gold standard, for its capacity to project several interconnected regions simultaneously and coherently. However, undesirable effects may occur when assumptions of constant transition probabilities are used. This paper investigates these limits, explores a few solutions provided in the literature and describes the alternative methodology used by Statistics Canada in its most recent edition of population projections for the Canadian provinces and territories. Among other things, the new method is shown to improve the consistency between internal migration assumptions and results and to facilitate the projection of the uncertainty associated with this component.


Internal migration Projections Canada Multiregional  Interprovincial migration 



The author is very grateful to Nora Galbraith, Éric Caron Malenfant and Laurent Martel for their helpful editorial comments, and thanks Stacey Hallman for her help in editing the text.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Statistics CanadaOttawaCanada

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