Population Research and Policy Review

, Volume 36, Issue 1, pp 1–24

The Effect of Cash Transfers on Fertility: Evidence from Argentina

  • Santiago Garganta
  • Leonardo Gasparini
  • Mariana Marchionni
  • Mariano Tappatá
Article

Abstract

In 2009 Argentina introduced a large poverty-alleviation program (AUH) that provides monthly cash transfers per child to households without workers in the formal sector. In this paper we study the potential unintended effect of this program on fertility. We apply a difference-in-difference strategy comparing the probability of having a new child among eligible and ineligible mothers both before and after the program inception. The intention to treat estimations suggest a significant positive impact on fertility in households with at least one child (around 2 percentage points), but no significant effect on childless households. Given the short time window since the implementation of the AUH, we are unable to identify whether this positive effect reflects changes in the timing of births or in the equilibrium number of children.

Keywords

Fertility Cash transfers Social protection AUH Argentina 

JEL Classification

H55 I38 J13 

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.CEDLAS, Facultad de Ciencias EconómicasUniversidad Nacional de La Plata and CONICETLa PlataArgentina
  2. 2.McDonough School of BusinessGeorgetown UniversityWashingtonUSA

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