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Population Research and Policy Review

, Volume 34, Issue 4, pp 593–613 | Cite as

Subnational Population Projections by Age: An Evaluation of Combined Forecast Techniques

  • Mario Reinhold
  • Stephan L. ThomsenEmail author
Article

Abstract

Population projections commonly suffer from a decreasing accuracy with a higher degree of disaggregation. We suggest combining the cohort-component model and an averaged projection technique to improve precision of forecasts for small areas. Calculating ex-post population projections, we evaluate the precision and bias of the proposed method by contrasting error patterns of commonly used techniques using official population data from 46 districts of a German state for the years 1980–2013. In comparison to the individual methods considered, the combined approach results in the highest accuracy and lowest bias both for the total population and for age groups. The proposed method is also more robust regarding past growth.

Keywords

Small area population projection Forecast accuracy  Cohort-component model 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.NIW Hannover & Leibniz Universität HannoverHannoverGermany

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