Advertisement

Population Research and Policy Review

, Volume 33, Issue 3, pp 393–418 | Cite as

Failure to Realize Fertility Intentions: A Key Aspect of the Post-communist Fertility Transition

  • Zsolt Spéder
  • Balázs Kapitány
Article

Abstract

Our paper focuses on the realization of fertility intentions, exploring a new aspect of the post-communist fertility transition. By making use of a follow-up study, it was possible to compare five European countries and to analyze the chances of realizing short-term, time-dependent fertility intentions. There is always a difference between intention and behavior. It is partly due to demographic and social factors, such as age, parity, partnership status, but once these are accounted for, important differences remain between western European and post-communist countries. In the period after the turn of the millennium, chances of realizing intentions are significantly lower in post-communist countries than in western European countries. The lower chance of realization is a consequence of social anomie originating from discrepancy between slow value shift and the increased dynamism of structural changes.

Keywords

Fertility intention Fertility Post-communist fertility transition Longitudinal study in fertility 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The research was carried out as part of the EU FP7 project “Reproductive decision making in a macro-micro perspective (REPRO)”, Grant Agreement: SSH-2007- 3.1.2-217173, and the Hungarian Research Fund (OTKA) supported the completion of this study (No. NN776648). We benefited from discussions with research fellows of the REPRO project. We thank especially Arland Thornton and anonymous reviewers for useful comments and suggestions on previous drafts. A period spent at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock enabled finalization of the paper

References

  1. Ajzen, I. (1988). Attitudes, Personality and Behavior. Buckingham: Open University Press.Google Scholar
  2. Alesina, A., & Fuchs-Schündeln, N. (2007). Good bye Lenin (or not?): The effect of communism on people’s preferences. American Economic Review, 97(4), 1507–1528.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Arts, W., Hermkens, P., & van Wijck, P. (1995). Anomie, distributive justice and dissatisfaction with material well-being in Eastern Europe. International Journal of Comparative Sociology, 36(1–2), 1–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bhaumik, S. K., & Nugent, J. B. (2005). Does economic uncertainty affect decision to bear children? Evidence from East and West Germany. William Davidson Institute Working Paper, Number, 788, 23.Google Scholar
  5. Billingsley, S. (2010). The post-communist fertility puzzle. Population Research and Policy Review, 29(2), 193–231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Blaskó, Zs. (2005). Dolgozzanak-e a nők? A magyar lakosság nemi szerepekkel kapcsolatos véleményének változásai, 1988, 1994, 2002 [Should Women Work? Changes in the Hungarian Population’s Opinion Related to Gender Roles, 1988, 1994, 2002]. Demográfia, 48(2–3), 159–186.Google Scholar
  7. Bradurashvili, I., Kapanadze, E., & Tsiklauri, S. (2011). Generation and Gender Survey in Georgia II Wave (p. 75). Tbilisi: Georgian Centre of Population Research and UNFPA.Google Scholar
  8. Bühler, C., & Philipov, D. (2005). Social capital related to fertility: theoretical foundations and empirical evidence from Bulgaria. In W. Lutz & G. Feichtinger (Eds.), Vienna Yearbook of Population Research (pp. 53–81). Vienna: Austrian Academy of Sciences Press.Google Scholar
  9. Cornia, G. A., & Paniccià, R. (1996). The transition’s population crisis: An econometric investigation on nuptiality, fertility and mortality in severely distressed economies. MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies., 6(1), 95–129.Google Scholar
  10. Dahrendorf, R. (1990). Reflections on the Revolution in Europe. London: Chatto and Windus.Google Scholar
  11. Easterlin, E. A. (1987). Birth and Fortune. The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare (2nd ed.). Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  12. Frejka, T. (1980). Fertility trends and policies: Czechoslovakia in the 1970s. Population and Development Review, 9(3), 63–93.Google Scholar
  13. Frejka, T. (2008). Determinants of family formation and childbearing during the societal transition in Central and Eastern Europe. Demographic Research, 19(7), 139–170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Habich, R., & Spéder, Zs. (2000). Continuous changes: Different variations. Income distribution and dynamics in three societies. Sociological Review Special Issues, 2000, 1–26.Google Scholar
  15. Hagenaars, J., Halman, L., & Moors, G. (2004). Exploring Europe’s basic value map. In W. Arts, J. Hagenaars, & L. Halman (Eds.), The Cultural Diversity of European Unity (pp. 23–58). Leiden: Brill European Values Study.Google Scholar
  16. Hellevick, T., & Settersten, R. (2012). Life planning among young adults in 23 European countries: The effects of individual and country security. European Sociological Review,. doi: 10.1093/esr/jcs069.Google Scholar
  17. Inglehart, R. (1987). The Silent Revolution. Changing Values and Political Styles among Western Publics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  18. Inglehart, R., & Baker, W. E. (2000). Modernization, cultural change, and persistence of traditional values. American Sociological Review, 65(1), 19–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Kapitány, B., & Spéder, Zs. (2012). Success and failure in the realisation of childbearing intentions. Comparing influencing factors in four European countries. Population-E, 67(4), 599–630.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Kohler, H.-P., Billari, F. C., & Ortega, J. A. (2002). The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s. Population and Development Review, 28(4), 641–680.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Kopp, M., Skrabski, Á., Lőke, J., & Szedmák, S. (1999). The Hungarian State of Mind in a Transforming Society. In Zs Spéder (Ed.), Hungary in Flux. Society, Politics and Transformation. Hamburg: Kraemer.Google Scholar
  22. Kornai, J. (1980). Economics of Shortage. Amsterdam: North Holland Press.Google Scholar
  23. Kotowska, I., Józwiack, J., Matysiak, A., & Baranowska, A. (2008). Poland: Fertility decline as response to profound societal and labor market changes? Demographic Research, 19(22), 795–853.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Koycheva, E., & Philipov, D. (2008). Bulgaria: Ethnic differentials in rapidly declining fertility. Demographic Research, 19(13), 361–402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Lesthaeghe, R. (1995). The Second Demographic Transition – An interpretation. In K. O. Mason & A.-M. Jensen (Eds.), Gender and Family. Change in industrialised countries (pp. 17–62). Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
  26. Lesthaeghe, R. (2010). The unfolding story of the second demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 36(2), 211–251.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Lück, D. & Hofäcker, D (2003). Rejection and Acceptance of the Male Breadwinner Model: Which Preferences Do Women Have under Which Circumstances? Bamberg: GLOBALIFE Working Paper No. 60. p. 40. http://oldsite.soziologie-blossfeld.de/globalife/downloads/wp_zipped/wp060.pdf.
  28. Mathwig, G., & Habich, R. (1997). Berufs- und Einkommensverläufe in Deutschland nach der Vereinigung. In S. Hradil & E. Pankoke (Hrsg.), Aufstieg für alle? (pp. 11–102). Opladen: Leske + Budrich.Google Scholar
  29. Merton, R. (1968 [1980]). Social theory and social structure. New York: Free Press. [1980. (in Hungarian)].Google Scholar
  30. Monier, A. (1989). Fertility intentions and actual behavior. A longitudinal study 1974, 1976, 1979. Population: An English Selection, 44(1), 237–259.Google Scholar
  31. Morgan, S. P., & Rackin, H. (2010). The correspondence between fertility intentions and behavior in the United States. Population and Development Review, 36, 91–118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Müller, K., & Frick, J. (1996). Die Äquivalenzeinkommensmobilität in den neuen und alten Bundesländern 1990–1994. In R. Hauser, et al. (Eds.), Soziale Sicherheit für Alle? (pp. 103–154). Opladen: Leske + Budrich.Google Scholar
  33. Perelli-Harris, B. (2008). Ukraine: On the border between old and new uncertain times, and below replacement. Demographic Research, 19(29), 1145–1178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Philipov, D. (2003). Fertility in times of discontinuous societal change. In J. Kotowska (Ed.), Population of Central and Eastern Europe. Challenges and Opportunities (pp. 665–689). Warsaw: Statistical Publishing Establishment.Google Scholar
  35. Philipov, D. (2009). The effect of competing intentions and behaviour on short-term childbearing intentions and subsequent childbearing. European Journal of Population, 25, 525–548.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Philipov, D., Spéder, Zs, & Billari, F. C. (2006). Soon, later or ever: The impact of anomie and social capital on fertility intentions in Bulgaria (2002) and Hungary (2001). Population Studies, 60(3), 289–308.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Rabusic, L. (2001). Value change and demographic behaviour in the Czech Republic. Czech Sociological Review, 9(1), 99–122.Google Scholar
  38. Ranjan, P. (1999). Fertility behavior under income uncertainty. European Journal of Population, 15(1), 25–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Régnier-Loilier, A., & Vignoli, D. (2011). Fertility intentions and obstacles to their realization in France and Italy. Population-E, 66(2), 361–390.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Róbert, P. (1999). Gritting the Teeth: Embittered with the Change of System. In Zs. Spéder (Ed.), Hungary in Flux (pp. 87–116). Hamburg: Krämer.Google Scholar
  41. Rodin, J. (2011). Fertility intentions and risk management: Exploring the fertility decline in Eastern Europe during transition. Ambio, 40, 221–230.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Roland, G. (2010). The long-run weight of communism or the weight of long-run history? UNU-WIDER Working paper No. 15. p. 25.Google Scholar
  43. Rotariu, T. (2006). Romania and the second demographic transition. International Journal of Sociology, 36(1), 10–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Rychterikova, J. (2000). Demographic transition or demographic shock in recent population development in the Czech Republic? Acta Universitas Caroliane Geographica, 1, 89–102.Google Scholar
  45. Schwartz, S. H., Bardi, A., & Bianchi, G. (2000). Value Adaptation to the Imposition and Collapse of Communist Regimes in East-Central Europe. In J. Duckitt & S. A. Renshon (Eds.), Political Psychology: Cultural and Cross Cultural Foundations (pp. 217–237). London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
  46. Sobotka, T. (2002). Ten years of rapid fertility changes in the European post-communist countries. Evidence and interpretation. University of Groningen, Population Research Centre, Working Paper Series 02-1, p. 53.Google Scholar
  47. Sobotka, T. (2008). The diverse faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe. Demographic Research, 19(7), 171–224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Sobotka, T., Zeman, K., & Kantorová, V. (2003). Demographic shifts in the Czech Republic after 1998: A second demographic transition view. European Journal of Population, 19(3), 249–277.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Spéder, Zs. (2003). Fertility behaviour in a period of economic pressures and growing opportunities: Hungary, the 1990s. In J. Kotowska (Ed.), Population of Central and Eastern Europe. Challenges and Opportunities (pp. 457–484). Warsaw: Statistical Publishing Establishment.Google Scholar
  50. Spéder, Zs, & Kamarás, F. (2008). Hungary: Secular fertility decline with distinct period fluctuations. Demographic Research, 19(18), 599–664.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Spéder, Zs, & Kapitány, B. (2009). How are time-dependent childbearing intentions realized? Realization, postponement, abandonment bringing forward. European Journal of Population, 25(4), 503–523.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Srole, L. (1956). Social integration and certain corollaries: An exploratory study. American Sociological Review, 21(6), 709–716.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Szeleva, D., & Polakowski, M. P. (2008). Who cares? Changing patterns of childcare in Central Eastern Europe. Journal of European Social Policy, 18, 115–131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Testa, M. R. & Toulemon, L. (2006). Family formation in France: Individual preferences and subsequent outcomes. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 41–75.Google Scholar
  55. Thornton, A., & Philipov, D. (2009). Sweeping changes in marriage, cohabitation and childbearing in Central and Eastern Europe: New insights from the developmental idealism framework. European Journal of Population, 25(2), 123–156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. UN/ECE. (2000). Fertility decline in transition economies, 1989–1998. Economic and social forces Revisited. In Economic Survey of Europe 2000, No. 1 (pp. 189–207). New York: Economic Commission of Europe, UN.Google Scholar
  57. Van de Kaa, D. (1987). Europe’s second demographic transition. Population Bulletin 42 (1).Google Scholar
  58. Vikat, A., Spéder, Zs., Beets, G., Billari, F.C., Bühler, C, Désesquelles, A., Fokkema, T., Hoem, J.M., MacDonald, A., Neyer, G., Pailhé, A. Pinnelli, A. and A. Solaz, 2007. Generations and Gender Survey (GGS): Towards a better understanding of relationships and processes in the life course. Demographic Research 17(14): 389–440. www.demographic-research.org.Google Scholar
  59. Voicu, M., & Tufis, P. A. (2012). Trends in gender belief in Romania: 1993–2008. Current Sociology, 60(1), 61–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Westoff, C., & Ryder, N. (1977). The predictive validity of reproductive intentions. Demography, 14(4), 431–453.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Arts, W., Geliessen, J. & Luijkx, R. (2004). Shall the twain ever meet? Differences and changes in socio-economic justice norms and beliefs in Eastern and Western Europe at the turn of the Millennium. In J. Hagenaars & L. Halman (Eds.): The Cultural Diversity of European Unity (pp. 185–216).Google Scholar
  62. Zaharov, S. (2008). Russian Federation: From the first to second demographic transition. Demographic Research, 19(24), 908–971.Google Scholar
  63. Zapf, W. (1995). Zwei Geschwindigkeiten in Ost- und Westdeutschland. In E. Holtman & H. Sahner (Eds.), Aufhebung der Bipolarität (pp. 69–81). Opladen: Laske + Budrich.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Zapf, W. (1996). Die Modernisierungstheorie und die unterschiedlichen Pfade der gesellschaftlichen Entwicklung. Leviathan, 24(1), 63–77.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Hungarian Demographic Research InstituteBudapestHungary

Personalised recommendations