Coordinated approaches to large-scale movements of people: contributions of the Paris Agreement and the Global Compacts for migration and on refugees
- 383 Downloads
It is not yet clear how climate change will affect the structural constraints and spatial and social complexity that affect population movements in the future. Today, countries of origin, transit, and destination have reached a juncture. The UNFCCC Paris Agreement adds value to decisions these countries face by helping them explore possible scenarios for impacts that include large movements of people that could be associated with a rise in global average temperatures between 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Climate policy and mainstream migration and refugee policy are developing recommendations by the end of 2018 that, together, will provide new contours for governing human mobility in the twenty-first century. This paper compares work on human mobility under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and how climate change features in the initial drafts of the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) and the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR). The international community can choose not to include such future considerations, missing opportunities to avert risks of involuntary movements of people as climate change impacts intensify. Alternatively, the international community can help countries to preempt risks arising from governance gaps and climate impacts, incorporate climate and mobility considerations in planning, and establish contingency arrangements for large-scale movements of people. A measure of efficacy in coordinating responses to large-scale movements of people will be the degree to which both state and non-state actors take up the recommendations of the Task Force on Displacement, how the Global Compact for Migration is negotiated, and the degree to which states utilize the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework as climate and other dynamics unfold in future years.
KeywordsUNFCCC Paris Agreement Global Compact for Migration Global Compact on Refugees Displacement Disaster Climate adaptation Loss and damage Governance
The author would like to expressly thank Miwa Kato and Petya Pimisheva of the UNFCCC loss and damage team for their thoughts. All views expressed herein are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect any views of the UNFCCC or Parties in the climate policy arena.
- Afifi, T., & Jäger, J. (Eds.). (2010). Environment, forced migration and social vulnerability. Heidelberg: Springer.Google Scholar
- Afifi, T., Milan, A., Etzold, B., Schraven, B., Rademacher-Schulz, C., Sakdapolrak, P., Reif, A., van der Geest, K., & Warner, K. (2015). Human mobility in response to rainfall variability: opportunities for migration as a successful adaptation strategy in eight case studies. Migration and Development, 5(2), 254–274.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Barnett, J., McMichael, C. (2018). The effects of climate change on the geography and timing of human mobility. Population and Environment (this issue). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-018-0295-5
- Black, R., Kniveton, D., & Schmidt-Verkerk, K. (2013). Migration and climate change: toward an integrated assessment of sensitivity. In T. Faist & J. Schade (Eds.), Disentangling migration and climate change. Dordrecht: Springer.Google Scholar
- Bolstad, E. (2017). Planned retreat’ enters the climate dialogue. Scientific American, 31 Jan. 2017. www.scientificamerican.com/article/ldquo-planned-retreat-rdquo-enters-the-climate-dialogue/.Google Scholar
- Foresight. (2011). Final project report. Foresight: migration and global environmental change. London: The Government Office for Science https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/287717/11-1116-migration-and-global-environmental-change.pdf.
- Global Compact for Migration (2018). Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration. Zero draft. Refugeesmigrants.un.org, United Nations, 5 Feb. 2018, https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/sites/default/files/180205_gcm_zero_draft_final.pdf.
- Global Compact on Refugees (2018). Global Compact on Refugees zero draft. UNHCR, 31 Jan. 2018, www.unhcr.org/Zero-Draft.pdf.
- Guild, E., & Basaran, T. (2018). First perspectives on the zero draft (5 February 2018) for the UN. Legal Studies Research Paper No. 272/2018, Queen Mary University of London, School of Law, Feb. 2018.Google Scholar
- Guild, E., & Grant, S. (2017). Migration governance in the UN: what is the global compact and what does it mean? Queen Mary University of London, School of Law Legal Studies Research Paper, (252), 1–16. Retrieved from http://www.law.qmul.ac.uk/.
- Guterres, António (2011a). Maintenance of international peace and security: new challenges to international peace and security and conflict prevention (statement by UN High Commissioner for Refugees, United Nations Security Council Briefing, New York, 23 November 2011). http://www.unhcr.org/4ee21edc9.html.
- Guterres, A. (2011b). “Address” (statement by UN High Commissioner for Refugees, delivered at the Intergovernmental Meeting at Ministerial Level to mark the 60th Anniversary of the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and the 50th Anniversary of the 1961 Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness, Geneva, 7 December 2011), in UNHCR, Pledges 2011: Ministerial Intergovernmental Event on Refugees and Stateless Persons (Geneva, Palais desNations, 7–8 December 2011) (UNHCR, 2012).Google Scholar
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (1990). Houghton, J. T., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and World Meteorological Organization. IPCC first assessment report. Geneva: WMO.Google Scholar
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2014). In C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea, & L. L. White (Eds.), Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A:Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1132 pp.Google Scholar
- IOM (2018). Environmental migration portal: knowledge platform on people on the move in a changing climate. www.environmentalmigration.iom.int/ioms-engagement-migration-environment-and-climate-change.
- IOM, Georgetown University, UNHCR (2017). A toolbox: planning relocations to protect people from disasters and environmental change. Environmental Migration Portal, IOM. https://environmentalmigration.iom.int/toolbox-planning-relocations-protect-people-disasters-and-environmental-change.Google Scholar
- Jäger, J., Frühmann, J., Grünberger, S, Vag, A. (2009). Synthesis report. Environmental change and forced migration scenarios project, 64–66. Available at: http://www.each-for.eu/documents/EACH-FOR_Synthesis_Report_090515.pdf.
- Kälin, W. (2016). Displacement in the context of disasters and adverse effects of climate change. Research Handbook on Disasters and International Law, 358–382. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784717407.00028.
- Mach, E. (2017) Water and migration: how far would you go for water? Environmental Migration Portal, IOM, https://environmentalmigration.iom.int/water-and-migration-how-far-would-you-go-water.Google Scholar
- Massey, D., Axinn, W., & Ghimire, D. (2007). Environmental change and out-migration: evidence from Nepal, population studies centre research report 07-615. Ann Arbor: Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan.Google Scholar
- McAdams, J. (2014). Creating new norms on climate change, natural disasters and displacement: international developments 2010–2013. Refuge, 29(2), 11–26.Google Scholar
- McAuliffe, M., & Koser, K. (Eds.). (2017). A long way to go: irregular migration patterns, processes, drivers and decision-making. Canberra: ANU Press.Google Scholar
- Nansen Initiative (2015). Towards a protection agenda for people displaced across borders in the context of disasters and the effects of climate change (Information Note, January 2015) 1. https://www2.nanseninitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/NANSEN_Leaflet_english_Jan2015.pdf.
- Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.). (2007). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- PDD (2016). Platform on disaster displacement. ‘Strategic Framework 2016–2019’ (2016) 3. http://disasterdisplacement.org/about-us/our-architecture/.Google Scholar
- Pourazar, E. (2017). Spaces of vulnerability and areas prone to natural disaster and crisis in six SADC Countries. IOM. http://publications.iom.int/books/spaces-vulnerability-and-areas-prone-natural-disaster-and-crisis-six-sadc-countries.Google Scholar
- Renaud, F. G., Bogardi, J. J., Dun, O., & Warner, K. (2007). Control, adapt or flee: how to face environmental migration? Bonn: United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security.Google Scholar
- Schleussner, C.-F., et al. (2016). Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries. PNAS, National Academy of Sciences, 21 July 2016. www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/07/20/1601611113.full.Google Scholar
- Sudmeier-Rieux, K., Fernández, M., Gaillard, J., Guadagno, L., Jaboyedoff, M. (2017). Identifying emerging issues in disaster risk reduction, migration, climate change and sustainable development. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-33880-4. ISBN: 978-3-319-33878-1. Springer International Publishing, Cham.
- UN General Assembly (1948). Universal declaration of human rights. A/RES/3/217 A - Universal Declaration of Human Rights - UN Documents: Gathering a Body of Global Agreements, United Nations. https:un-documents.net/a3r217a.htm.
- UN General Assembly (2016). New York declaration | Refugees and migrants. A/RES/71/1 New York Declaration, Annex I, United Nations, 3 Oct. 2016. https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/declaration.Google Scholar
- UNFCCC (1992). FCCC/INFORMAL/84 GE.05-62220 (E) 200705. Article 2. https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf.
- UNFCCC (2007a). Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the convention (AWG-LCA). FCCC/CP/2007/6/Add.1 *, paragraph 2 and annex 1.Google Scholar
- UNFCCC (2007b). Conference of the parties. Bali action plan. FCCC/CP/2007. Bali, Indonesia. www.unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/cop13/eng/06a01.pdf.
- UNFCCC (2010a). Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA). FCCC/AWGLCA/2010/14. Distributed August 13, 2010.Google Scholar
- UNFCCC (2010b). Conference of the parties. Decision 1/CP.16. Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention. FCCC/AWGLCA/2010. available at: http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_16/application/pdf/cop16_lca.pdf.
- UNFCCC (2011). Report of the subsidiary body for implementation on its thirty-fourth session, Bonn, 6–17 June 2011, FCCC/SBI/2011/7.Google Scholar
- UNFCCC (2012). Conference of the parties. Decision 3/CP.18. Approaches to address loss and damage associated with climate change impacts in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to enhance adaptive capacity. FCCC/CP/2012/8/Add.1.Google Scholar
- UNFCCC (2013). Conference of the parties. Decision 2/CP.19. Warsaw international mechanism for loss and damage associated with climate change impacts. FCCC/CP/2013/10/Add.1.Google Scholar
- UNFCCC (2015). Adoption of the Paris Agreement FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1.Google Scholar
- UNFCCC (2017a). The five-year rolling workplan of the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism for loss and damage associated with climate change impacts. Loss and Damage Executive Committee, UNFCCC, 12 Oct. 2017. http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/groups_committees/loss_and_damage_executive_committee/application/pdf/draft-five-year-rolling-workplan-12-oct.pdf.
- UNFCCC (2017b). Workplan of the task force on displacement. Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism. May 2017, http://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/tfd_workplan.pdf.
- United Nations (1951). Convention relating to the status of refugees. UNHCR, Treaty Series, Vol. 189, No. 2545, www.unhcr.org/1951-refugee-convention.html.
- United Nations (1967). Protocol relating to the status of refugees. UNHCR, Treaty Series, vol. 606, No. 8791. www.treaties.un.org/pages/ShowMTDSGDetails.aspx?src=UNTSONLINE.
- United Nations (1969). OAU convention governing the specific aspects of refugee problems in Africa, adopted by the assembly of heads of state and government at its sixth ordinary session, Addis-Ababa, 10 September 1969. UNHCR, Treaty Series, vol. 1001, No. 14691 www.unhcr.org/about-us/background/45dc1a682/oau-convention-governing-specific-aspects-refugee-problems-africa-adopted.html.
- United Nations (1984). Cartagena declaration on refugees, adopted by the colloquium on the international protection of refugees in Central America, Mexico and Panama, Cartagena De Indias, Colombia, 22 November 1984. UNHCR, www.unhcr.org/about-us/background/45dc19084/cartagena-declaration-refugees-adopted-colloquium-international-protection.html.
- Zetter, R. (2008). Legal and normative frameworks. Forced Migration Review, 31, 62–63.Google Scholar