Population and Environment

, Volume 37, Issue 2, pp 131–156 | Cite as

Analyzing the impact of urban planning on population distribution in the Montreal metropolitan area using a small-area microsimulation projection model

Original Paper

Abstract

The objective of this paper was to project the population of the Montreal Metropolitan Community’s municipalities over the 2006–2031 period and assess the effects of changes to urban planning on the expected spatial distribution of the population. For this purpose, we develop a microsimulation model that performs small-area population projections at a municipal level. This model, called local demographic simulations, takes into account local contextual variables such as the expected number of new housing units to be built. We then compare the results from three scenarios with different constraints on the planned residential development of municipalities. We show that although urban sprawl cannot be avoided, increasing the development potential of the central area can slow it. Results also suggest that the age structure of the central area is not significantly affected by different mobility patterns.

Keywords

Projection Population Small area Microsimulation Contextual factors Montreal 

Résumé

L’objectif de cet article est de projeter la population des municipalités de la Communauté Métropolitaine de Montréal pour la période 2006–2031 et de mesurer l’effet de changements dans les plans de développement urbain sur la distribution future de la population. À cet effet, nous avons développé un modèle de microsimulation qui effectue des projections locales à l’échelle des municipalités. Ce modèle, nommé Local Demographic Simulations (LDS), prend en considération des variables contextuelles locales telles que le nombre de nouveaux logements construits. Nous comparons les résultats de trois scénarios ayant différentes contraintes relatives au développement résidentiel planifié des municipalités. Nous montrons que malgré le fait que l’étalement urbain puisse difficilement être contré, il pourrait être ralenti en augmentant le potentiel de développement des zones centrales. Les résultats suggèrent également que la structure par âge de la ville centre n’est pas affectée par les différentes dynamiques de mobilité.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.INRS – Centre Urbanisation Culture SociétéMontrealCanada

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