A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide
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We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.
KeywordsClimate change Population Vulnerability Hazards Africa Spatial modeling
This work was supported through USGS cooperative agreement #G09AC000001 “Monitoring and Forecasting Climate, Water and Land Use for Food Production in the Developing World,” with funding from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, Decisions award #NN10AN26I for “A Land Data Assimilation System for Famine Early Warning,” and SERVIR award #NNH12AU22I for “A Long Time-Series Indicator of Agricultural Drought for the Greater Horn of Africa”; USAID Office of Food for Peace, award #AID-FFP-P-10-00002 for “Famine Early Warning Systems Network Support”; and the USGS Land Change Science Program. The work was also partially supported by a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Climate Scene Investigators (CSI)—Transitions Program Grant: A Global Standardized Precipitation Index Supporting the US Drought Portal and the Famine Early Warning System Network. We would also like to acknowledge Jim Regetz and Alex Zvoleff for statistical and computing consultation and Shuang Yang for assisting in our hot spot analysis literature review.
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