Physical Oceanography

, Volume 14, Issue 5, pp 303–312 | Cite as

Prediction of natural processes by the method of adaptive balance of causes

  • I. E. Timchenko
  • E. M. Igumnova
Mathematical Modeling of Marine Systems


The problem of estimation of the future values of processes is studied as a problem of their adaptation to the known data of observations in the past. The method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC-method) is used for the construction of a dynamic model of the coefficients of influence. This model enables one to compute the current values of these coefficients according to the current correlation matrix determined as a result of reanalysis of the observed processes. We propose an ABC-model with variable coefficients of influence guaranteeing the optimal (from the viewpoint of accuracy) prediction of natural processes and present an example of its application.


Climate Change Correlation Matrix Environmental Physic Natural Process Variable Coefficient 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • I. E. Timchenko
    • 1
  • E. M. Igumnova
    • 1
  1. 1.Marine Hydrophysical InstituteUkrainian Academy of SciencesSevastopol

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