Political Behavior

, Volume 38, Issue 4, pp 899–920 | Cite as

Expressive and Strategic Behavior in Legislative Elections in Argentina

  • Lucas Núñez
Original Paper


In this paper I study strategic voting behavior in the Argentine Senate election for the City of Buenos Aires in 2013. I estimate and analyze the voter transition matrix between the primary and general elections using a Bayesian hierarchical model for ecological inference, utilizing a rich data set of ballot box data. The results show that strategic behavior is not widespread among the electorate in Buenos Aires. In particular, at least 75 % of voters who had the opportunity to avoid vote wasting by behaving strategically did not. I also find high levels of vote wasting when analyzing other provinces during the same election cycle. These results suggest that these electorates might be composed of a mixture of voters with strategic and expressive motivations, where the expressive factions dominate.


Strategic voting Voter transitions Bayesian models Ecological inference 



The author would like to thank R. Michael Alvarez for invaluable advise, Roderick Kiewiet, Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, Welmar Rosado, and Marcelo Fernández, and participants at the MPSA Annual Meeting in Chicago April 2015 and the 32nd Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology in Rochester July 2015. Replication code and data is available at the Political Behavior Dataverse at ”Replication Data for: ’Expressive and Strategic Behavior in Legislative Elections in Argentina”’,

Supplementary material

11109_2016_9340_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (161 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (PDF 123 kb)


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Division of the Humanities and Social SciencesCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaUSA

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