Philosophical Studies

, Volume 171, Issue 2, pp 373–397

Giving your knowledge half a chance


DOI: 10.1007/s11098-013-0276-6

Cite this article as:
Bacon, A. Philos Stud (2014) 171: 373. doi:10.1007/s11098-013-0276-6


One thousand fair causally isolated coins will be independently flipped tomorrow morning and you know this fact. I argue that the probability, conditional on your knowledge, that any coin will land tails is almost 1 if that coin in fact lands tails, and almost 0 if it in fact lands heads. I also show that the coin flips are not probabilistically independent given your knowledge. These results are uncomfortable for those, like Timothy Williamson, who take these probabilities to play a central role in their theorizing.

Keywords Evidential probability Lottery paradox Evidence Knowledge Chance 

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of PhilosophyUniversity of Southern CaliforniaLos AngelesUSA

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