Bacon, A. Philos Stud (2014) 171: 373. doi:10.1007/s11098-013-0276-6
One thousand fair causally isolated coins will be independently flipped tomorrow morning and you know this fact. I argue that the probability, conditional on your knowledge, that any coin will land tails is almost 1 if that coin in fact lands tails, and almost 0 if it in fact lands heads. I also show that the coin flips are not probabilistically independent given your knowledge. These results are uncomfortable for those, like Timothy Williamson, who take these probabilities to play a central role in their theorizing.
Keywords Evidential probability Lottery paradox Evidence Knowledge Chance