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Open Economies Review

, Volume 28, Issue 3, pp 413–429 | Cite as

China Spillovers: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates

  • Davide Furceri
  • João Tovar Jalles
  • Aleksandra Zdzienicka
Research Article

Abstract

The recent “rebalancing” of China’s economy has raised concerns that the country’s growth slowdown may have large global implications. This note looks at this issue by analyzing the effects of China’s growth shocks on the output of other countries and how these effects have changed over time. Estimates indicate that the magnitude of China’s spillovers has steadily increased during the last two decades, but remains yet limited. Spillovers are larger in neighboring (Asian) countries and in emerging markets and developing economies. Trade linkages remain main transmission channels. In addition, a negative shock in China has (marginal) positive effects for net commodity importers while negative for net commodity exporters.

Keywords

China Spillovers Time-varying estimates 

JEL Classification

G1 E6 

Notes

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank an anonymous referee, Helge Berger, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Ikka Korhonen, colleagues of the IMF Spillovers Task Force Working Group and participations of the IMF-ECB-BoE Workshop on Global Spillovers for very useful discussions and suggestions. The views expressed in this note are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Davide Furceri
    • 1
    • 2
  • João Tovar Jalles
    • 1
    • 3
    • 4
  • Aleksandra Zdzienicka
    • 1
  1. 1.Fiscal Affairs DepartmentInternational Monetary FundWashingtonUSA
  2. 2.University of PalermoPalermoItaly
  3. 3.Centre for Globalization and GovernanceNova School of Business and EconomicsLisbonPortugal
  4. 4.UECE – Research Unit on Complexity and EconomicsLisbonPortugal

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