The Evolving Role of China and India in the Global Financial System
- 248 Downloads
- 8 Citations
Abstract
Three main features characterize the international financial integration of China and India. First, while only having a small global share of privately-held external assets and liabilities, these countries are large holders of official reserves. Second, their international balance sheets are highly asymmetric: both are “short equity, long debt.” Third, China and India have improved their net external positions over the last decade although neoclassical models would predict them to be net borrowers. We argue that domestic financial policies are key to understanding these patterns and the future role of China in the international financial system.
Keywords
Financial integration Capital flows China India World economyJEL Classification
F02 F30 F31 F32 F33 F36Notes
Acknowledgement
This paper draws on the longer study contained in Lane and Schmukler (2007). We thank many colleagues at the IMF and the World Bank for interacting with us at the initial stages of this project. For useful comments, we are grateful especially to Bob McCauley and Alan Winters, and also to Richard Cooper, Subir Gokarn, Yasheng Huang, Phil Keefer, Aart Kraay, Louis Kuijs, Jong-Wha Lee, Simon Long, Guonan Ma, and T.N. Srinivasan. We also are grateful to participants at presentations held at the World Bank China Office (Beijing), the World Bank headquarters (Washington, DC), the conference “China and Emerging Asia: Reorganizing the Global Economy” (Seoul), the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations—World Bank conference “Increased Integration of China and India in the Global Financial System” (Delhi), the Center for Pacific Basin Studies’ 2006 Pacific Basin conference (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), the National University of Singapore SCAPE-IPS-World Bank workshop (Singapore), and the 2006 IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings (Singapore) for very helpful feedback. Jose Azar, Agustin Benetrix, Francisco Ceballos, Vahagn Galstyan, Niall McInerney, and Maral Shamloo provided excellent research assistance at different stages of the project. We thank the Singapore Institute of Policy Studies, IIIS, the World Bank Irish Trust Fund, and the World Bank Research Department, East Asia Region, and South Asia Region for financial support. The views expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the World Bank.
References
- Aizenman J, Lee J (2007) International reserves: precautionary versus mercantilist views, theory and evidence. Open Econ Rev (in press)Google Scholar
- Allen F, Qian J, Qian M (2007) China’s financial system: past, present, and future. In: Brandt Loren, Rawski T (eds) China’s great economic transformation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (in press)Google Scholar
- Bai C-E (2006) The domestic financial system and capital flows: China. Mimeo, Tsinghua UniversityGoogle Scholar
- Blanchard O, Giavazzi F (2006) Rebalancing growth in China: a three handed approach. China World Econ 14(4):1–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Caballero R, Farhi E, Gourinchas P-O (2006) An equilibrium model of global imbalances and low interest rates. NBER Working Paper No. 11996Google Scholar
- Chamon M, Prasad E (2005) Determinants of household saving in China. Mimeo, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USAGoogle Scholar
- Dollar D, Kraay A (2006) Neither a borrower nor a lender: does China’s zero net foreign asset position make economic sense? J Monet Econ 53(5):943–971CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Dooley M, Folkerts-Landau D, Garber P (2003) An essay on the revived bretton woods system. NBER Working Paper No. 9971Google Scholar
- Eichengreen B (2007) Global imbalances and the lessons of bretton woods. In: Uzan M (ed) The future of the international monetary system. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham (in press)Google Scholar
- Eichengreen B, Luengnaruemitchai P (2004) Why doesn’t Asia have bigger bond markets? Korea University/BIS Conference “Asian Bond Market Research,” Seoul, March. Revised version to appear as BIS occasional paperGoogle Scholar
- Eichengreen B, Park YC (2005) Why has there been less financial integration in asia than in europe? In: Ito T, Park YC, Wang Y (eds) A new financial market structure for East Asia. Edward Elgar, CheltenhamGoogle Scholar
- European Central Bank (2006) The accumulation of foreign reserves. Occasional Paper Series No. 43Google Scholar
- Fehr H, Jokisch S, Kotlikoff L (2007) Will China eat our lunch or take us out to dinner? Simulation the demographic, fiscal, and economic transition paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China. In: Ito T, Rose A (eds) Fiscal policy and management in east Asia. University of Chicago Press, Chicago (in press)Google Scholar
- Genberg H, McCauley R, Park YC, Persaud A (2005) Official reserves and currency management in Asia: myth, reality and the future. Center for Economic Policy ResearchGoogle Scholar
- Goldstein M, Lardy N (2005) China’s role in the revived Bretton Woods system: a case of mistaken identity. Institute for International Economics Working Paper No. 05-2Google Scholar
- Goodfriend M, Prasad E (2006) A framework for independent monetary policy in China. IMF Working Paper No. 06/111Google Scholar
- International Monetary Fund (2005) World economic outlook, September 2005Google Scholar
- International Monetary Fund (2006a) Global financial stability reportGoogle Scholar
- International Monetary Fund (2006b) World economic outlook database, September 2006Google Scholar
- Ju J, Wei S-J (2006) A solution to two paradoxes of international capital flows. IMF Working Paper No. 06/178Google Scholar
- Kletzer K (2005) Liberalizing capital flows in India: financial repression, macroeconomic policy and gradual reforms. In: Bery S, Bosworth B, Panagariya A (eds) India policy forum 2004. Brookings Institution, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
- Kochhar K, Kumar U, Subramanian A, Rajan R, Tokatlidis I (2006) India’s pattern of development: what happens, what follows. J Monet Econ 53(5):981–1019CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Kuijs L (2005) Investment and savings in China. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3633Google Scholar
- Kuijs L (2006) China in the future: a large net saver or net borrower? Mimeo, World BankGoogle Scholar
- Lane P (2006) The international balance sheets of China and India. Mimeo, Trinity College DublinGoogle Scholar
- Lane P, Milesi-Ferretti GM (2007) The external wealth of nations Mark II: revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970–2004. J Int Econ (in press)Google Scholar
- Lane P, Schmukler S (2007) The international financial integration of China and India. In: Winters A, Yusuf S (eds) Dancing with giants: China, India, and the world economy, world bank and institute of policy studies. A longer version appeared as CEPR Discussion Paper 5852, September 2006, pp 131–132Google Scholar
- Li D (2006) Large domestic non-intermediated investments and government liabilities: challenges facing China’s financial sector reform. Mimeo, Tsinghua UniversityGoogle Scholar
- Lim E, Spence M, Hausmann R (2005) China and the global economy: medium-term issues and options. Center for International Development Working Paper No. 126Google Scholar
- Ma G, McCauley R (2002) Rising foreign currency liquidity of banks in China. BIS Q Rev September:67–74Google Scholar
- Mishra D (2006) Financing India’s rapid growth and its implications for the global economy. Mimeo, World BankGoogle Scholar
- Naughton B (2006) Top-down control: SASAC and the persistence of state ownership in China. Mimeo, University of California, San DiegoGoogle Scholar
- Obstfeld M, Rogoff K (2005) Global current account imbalances and exchange rate adjustments. Brookings Pap Econ Act 2005(1):67–146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Patnaik I, Shah A (2006) The interplay between capital flows and the domestic Indian financial system. MimeoGoogle Scholar
- Patnaik I, Shah A (2007) India’s experience with capital flows: the elusive quest for a sustainable current account deficit. In: Edwards S (ed) Capital controls and capital flows in emerging economies: policies, practices and consequences. University of Chicago Press, Chicago (in press)Google Scholar
- Prasad E, Rajan R (2005) Controlled capital account liberalization: a proposal. IMF Policy Discussion Paper No. 05/7Google Scholar
- Prasad E, Rajan R (2006) A framework for independent monetary policy in China. IMF Working Paper No. 06/111Google Scholar
- Prasad E, Wei S-J (2007) The chinese approach to capital inflows: patterns and possible explanations. In Edwards S (ed) Capital controls and capital flows in emerging economies: policies, practices and consequences. University of Chicago Press, Chicago (in press)Google Scholar
- Rodrik D (2006) The social cost of foreign exchange reserves. Int Econ J 20(3):253–266CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Setser B (2006) The Chinese conundrum: external financial strength, domestic financial weakness. CESifo Economic Studies 52(2):364–395CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Sharma K (2000) Export growth in India: has FDI played a role? Yale University Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper No. 816Google Scholar
- Summers L (2006) Reflections on global account imbalances and emerging markets reserve accumulation. L.K. Jha Memorial Lecture, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai, MarchGoogle Scholar
- Thomas S (2005) How the financial sector in india was reformed. In: Narayanan S, (ed) Documenting reforms: case studies from India. Observer Research Foundation, IndiaGoogle Scholar
- Winters LA, Yusuf S (2007a) Introduction: dancing with giants. In: Winters LA, Yusuf S (eds) Dancing with giants: China, India, and the global economy, World Bank and Institute of Policy Studies, pp 1–34Google Scholar
- Winters LA, Yusuf S (eds) (2007b) Dancing with giants: China, India, and the global economy, World Bank and Institute of Policy StudiesGoogle Scholar
- Zhao M (2006) External liberalization and the evolution of China’s exchange system: an empirical approach. Mimeo, World BankGoogle Scholar