A dynamic dissemination model for recurring online public opinion

  • Jiuping XuEmail author
  • Weiyao Tang
  • Yi Zhang
  • Fengjuan Wang
Original paper


With an increasing number of people sharing feelings and opinions online, the online platforms have become one of the most important channels for public opinion dissemination. Moreover, recurring online public opinion has become a primary form of online public opinion and has begun to have major effects on prompting social change. Therefore, this paper establishes a novel dynamic dissemination model to systematically study the recurrence of online public opinion. Through an in-depth analysis, three major influencing factors are determined, a recurrence probability function is identified, and then a SIR-I-based dynamic dissemination model is successfully developed, for which the uniformly asymptotically stability is fully proved. A case study from “Child abuse in Ctrip kindergarten” is conducted to demonstrate the validity of the proposed model. The parameter analysis proved that controlling of the public opinion heat, control effectiveness, event topic relevance, and recurrence time point is an effective way to manage the recurrence dissemination, and that opinion leaders play an important role in dissemination. Meanwhile, comparative analysis shows that our model efficiently characterized the dissemination process of recurring online public opinion. As our paper expanded the research cycle of public opinion to its recurrence, it not only enriches online public opinion dissemination model development, but also provides a reference for quantitative analysis of recurring online public opinions dissemination.


Dissemination model Recurring online public opinion Public opinion dissemination SIR-I model 

List of symbols




Recurrence time point


Public opinion heat


Control effectiveness


Event topic relevance


Event i


Control effectiveness score


Rapid reaction level


Disposal guidance level


Legalization level


Information publicity degree


Response speed




Authority of spokesperson


Network interaction level


Understanding the demands level


Law enforcement level


Standardization level


The weight of influencing factor


Equilibrium point

\({\mathfrak {R}_0}\)

Dissemination threshold


Overall level of factors influencing online public opinion recurrence


Online public opinion-related feature word vectors for event i


The gth feature word in the VSM


The weight of \({t_g}\) in event i


Recurring online public opinion function


Adjustment coefficient


Number of netizens


The ignorant


The spreaders


The stiflers


Proportion of the ignorant in the population at time t


Proportion of spreaders in the population at time t


Proportion of stiflers in the population at time t


Proportion of the ignorant in the population at time 0


Proportion of spreaders in the population at time 0


Proportion of stiflers in the population at time 0


Spreading rate


Stifling rate


Lyapunov function


Simulation values vector of I


Actual values vector of I



This work was supported by the Research on Social Public Opinion Management of Urban Disaster Events under the Background of Big Data, PR China, the National Social Science Fund Major Bidding Project (No. 17ZDA286) and the Basic Research Business Expenses Project for the Central Universities of Sichuan University (No. skzd2018-pt06). The authors would like to thank the anonymous referees for their insightful comments and suggestions to improve this paper, as well as the Uncertainty Decision-Making Laboratory of Sichuan University for helpful comments and discussion.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.


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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jiuping Xu
    • 1
    Email author
  • Weiyao Tang
    • 1
  • Yi Zhang
    • 1
    • 2
  • Fengjuan Wang
    • 1
  1. 1.Business SchoolSichuan UniversityChengduPeople’s Republic of China
  2. 2.School of Economics and ManagementYibin UniversityYibinPeople’s Republic of China

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