Nonlinear Dynamics

, Volume 44, Issue 1–4, pp 341–349 | Cite as

Earthquake Forecasting Using Neural Networks: Results and Future Work

  • E. Ivo Alves


In 1994, a new earthquake forecasting method was developed, that integrated in a neural network several forecasting tools that had been originally developed for financial analysis. This method was tested with the seismicity of the Azores, predicting the July, 1998, and the January, 2004, earthquakes, albeit within very wide time and location windows. Work is beginning to integrate physical precursors in the neural network, in order to narrow the forecasting windows

Key Words

Azores Earthquake prediction financial technical analysis forecasting neural networks Portugal seismicity 



Artificial neural network


Hidden (middle) layer


Input layer


Moving average


Moving Averages' Convergence-Divergence


Modified Mercalli intensity




Optimised decision index


Output layer


Real-modulated Index


Relative strength index


Stochastic oscillator


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Copyright information

© Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Centro de Geofísica da Universidade de CoimbraCoimbraPortugal

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