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Daily rainfall erosivity as an indicator for natural disasters: assessment in mountainous regions of southeastern Brazil

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Abstract

Rainfall erosivity is defined as the rainfall potential to cause erosion. Its concept is based on the kinetic energy of rainfall, rainfall intensity, and maximum rainfall intensity in a 30-min period, and purposes recurrence analyzes involving soil losses. It is a climatic index related to damages caused by erosion, landslides, and flooding. This study sought to: (1) model daily rainfall erosivity in Mantiqueira Range Region (MRR), Southeastern Brazil; and (2) propose the Rmaxday as an indicator of the areas prone to natural disasters. Rmaxday is defined as the maximum daily rainfall erosivity and is determined from the maximum daily rainfall. It should be calculated from a historical series over the least 22 years. Three seasonal models were fitted using observed historical series. The models exhibited consistent statistical performances (CNS = 0.55, on average), thereby indicating that they can be used for further studies regarding natural disasters in the MRR. The Center to Northeastern MRR had the most vulnerable areas, as they experienced Rmaxday values > 1600 MJ ha−1 mm h−1 in the year of 2000 when fatalities were registered. Overall, the first half of January had the greatest Rmaxday in MRR. This period has been the most relevant for provoking natural disasters caused by heavy rainfall in MRR. Rmaxday is a promising indicator to identify areas prone to natural disasters, as it is more robust than the commonly used rainfall depth intervals, i.e., there is a relationship between its magnitude and the damages provoked by natural disasters.

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Adapted from Mello et al. (2019)

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Acknowledgements

We would like to express our thanks to CNPq (Grant Number 301556/2017-2) and FAPEMIG (Grant Code PPM 415-16 and PPM 545-18) for supporting this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Resources Department, Federal University of Lavras, C.P. 3037, Lavras, MG, 37200-000, Brazil

    Carlos Rogério de Mello & Geovane Junqueira Alves

  2. Center for Technological Development, Water Resources Engineering, Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brazil

    Samuel Beskow

  3. Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA

    Lloyd Darrell Norton

Authors
  1. Carlos Rogério de Mello
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  2. Geovane Junqueira Alves
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  3. Samuel Beskow
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  4. Lloyd Darrell Norton
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Correspondence to Carlos Rogério de Mello.

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de Mello, C.R., Alves, G.J., Beskow, S. et al. Daily rainfall erosivity as an indicator for natural disasters: assessment in mountainous regions of southeastern Brazil. Nat Hazards 103, 947–966 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04020-w

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