Advertisement

Natural Hazards

, Volume 97, Issue 3, pp 1115–1126 | Cite as

Quantitative mapping of precursory seismicity rate changes along the Indonesian island chain

  • Santi PailopleeEmail author
  • Phatchara Chenphanut
Original Paper
  • 28 Downloads

Abstract

In this study, the possibility of detecting a significant seismicity rate change prior to a hazardous earthquake was examined along the Indonesian Sunda margin (ISM), Indonesia, using the seismological Z value method. The completeness inter- and intraplate seismicity data with a Mw ≥ 4.0 recorded during 1980–2016 was the dataset analyzed in this study. Based on an iterative test with 13 major or great earthquake case studies, the most suitable free parameters for detecting the precursory seismic quiescence by Z value analysis along the ISM were N = 25 events and Tw = 2.5 years. Investigation of the Z value in both temporal variation and spatial distribution revealed at least seven areas along the ISM with prominent Z value anomalies that are still quiescent from any hazardous earthquake and so are potential earthquake sources. These are northern and southern Praya, northern and southern Bajawa, eastern Dili, southern Ambon and southeastern Palu. Three of these seven areas (northern Praya, northern Bajawa and southwestern Pala) conform fairly well to the previously proposed eight risk areas in the Indonesian island chain derived from analysis of the b value of the frequency–magnitude distribution model. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a high possibility in the near future of seismic and/or tsunami hazard impact in the Indonesian island chain due to ISM seismic activities.

Keywords

Earthquake catalog Seismicity rate change Z value Earthquake forecasting Indonesian Sunda margin 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This Research is funded by Chulalongkorn University: CU-​GR_62_22_23_07. Thanks are extended to T. Pailoplee for the preparation of the draft manuscript and the Office of Research Affairs, Chulalongkorn University, for a critical review and improved English. The thoughtful comments and suggestions by the editors and anonymous reviewers that enhanced the quality of this manuscript significantly are acknowledged.

References

  1. Charusiri P, Pailoplee S (2015) Investigations of tsunamogenic sources in Mainland Southeast Asia: implication from seismicity. Unisearch J 2(1):9–12Google Scholar
  2. Chouliaras G, Stavrakakis GN (2001) Current seismic quiescence in Greece: implications for seismic hazard. J Seismol 5:595–608CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Gambino S, Laudani L, Magiagle S (2014) Seismicity pattern changes before the M = 4.8 Aeolian Archipelago (Italy) earthquake of August 16, 2010. Sci World J 2014: Article ID 531212Google Scholar
  4. Gardner JK, Knopoff L (1974) Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern California, with aftershocks removed, poissonian? Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(1):363–367Google Scholar
  5. Gutenberg B, Richter CF (1944) Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bull Seismol Soc Am 34:185–188Google Scholar
  6. Habermann RE (1983) Teleseismic detection in the Aleutian Island Arc. J Geophys Res 88:5056–5064CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Huang Q, Sobolev GA (2000) Precursory seismicity changes associated with the Nemuro Peninsula earthquake, January 28. J Asian Earth Sci 21(2):135–146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Katsumata K (2003) Precursory seismic quiescence before the M w= 8.3 Tokachi-oki, Japan, earthquake on 26 September 2003 revealed by a re-examined earthquake catalog. J Geophys Res 116:B10307-1-16Google Scholar
  9. Kawamura M, Chen Ch-Ch, Wua Y-M (2014) Seismicity change revealed by ETAS, PI, and Z value methods: a case study of the 2013 Nantou, Taiwan earthquake. Tectonophysics 634:139–155CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Krabbenhoeft A, Weinrebe RW, Kopp H, Flueh ER, Ladage S, Papenberg C, Planert L, Djajadihardja Y (2010) Bathymetry of the Indonesian S. Sunda margin-relating morphological features of the upper plate slopes to the location and extent of the seismogenic zone. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:1899–1911CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Nanjo KZ, Holliday JR, Chen CC, Rundle JB, Turcotte DL (2006) Application of a modified pattern informatics method to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan. Tectonophysics 424:351–366CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Natawidjaja D, Sieh K, Ward S, Cheng H, Edwards R, Galetzka J, Suwargadi B (2004) Paleogeodetic records of seismic and aseismic subduction from central Sumatran microatolls, Indonesia. J Geophys Res.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002398 Google Scholar
  13. Natawidjaja D, Sieh K, Galetzka J, Suwargadi BW, Cheng HE, Lawrence R, Mohamed C (2007) Interseismic deformation above the Sunda Megathrust recorded in coral microatolls of the Mentawai islands, West Sumatra. J Geophys Res 112(B2): Art. No. B02404. ISSN 0148-0227Google Scholar
  14. Okal E, Reymond D (2003) The mechanism of great Banda Sea earthquake of 1 February 1938: applying the method of preliminary determination of focal mechanism to a historical event. Earth Planet Sci Lett 216(1):1–15CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Pailoplee S (2014) Mapping b value anomalies along the Indonesian Island Chain: implications for upcoming earthquakes. J Earthq Tsunami 8(4):1450010CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Rudolf-Navarro AH, MuñoZ Diosdado A, Angulo-Brown F (2010) Seismic quiescence patterns as possible precursors of great earthquakes in Mexico. Int J Phys Sci 5(6):651–670Google Scholar
  17. Sobolev GA (1995) Fundamental of earthquake prediction. Electromagnetic Research Center, Moscow, p 162pGoogle Scholar
  18. Wiemer S (2001) A software package to analyze seismicity: ZMAP. Seismol Res 72:373–382CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Wiemer S, Wyss M (1994) Seismic quiescence before the Landers (M = 7.5) and Big Bear (M = 6.5) 1992 earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 84:900–916Google Scholar
  20. Woessner J, Wiemer S (2005) Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty. Bull Seismol Soc Am 95(2):684–698CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Wyss M (1991) Reporting history of the central Aleutians seismograph network and the quiescence preceding the 1986 Andreanof Island earthquake. Bull Seismol Soc Am 81:1231–1254Google Scholar
  22. Wyss M, Habermann RE (1988) Precursory quiescence before the August 1982 Stone Canyon, San Andreas fault, earthquakes. Pure appl Geophys 126:333–356CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Wyss M, Sammis CG, Nadeau RM, Wiemer S (2004) Fractal dimension and b value on creeping and locked patches of the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:410–421CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Zuniga FR, Wiemer S (1999) Seismicity patterns: are they always related to natural causes? Pure appl Geophys 155:713–726CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Morphology of Earth Surface and Advanced Geohazards in Southeast Asia Research Unit (MESA RU), Department of Geology, Faculty of ScienceChulalongkorn UniversityPathum Wan, BangkokThailand

Personalised recommendations