Natural Hazards

, Volume 97, Issue 1, pp 157–192 | Cite as

Assessing flood disaster impacts in agriculture under climate change in the river basins of Southeast Asia

  • Badri Bhakta ShresthaEmail author
  • Edangodage Duminda Pradeep Perera
  • Shun Kudo
  • Mamoru Miyamoto
  • Yusuke Yamazaki
  • Daisuke Kuribayashi
  • Hisaya Sawano
  • Takahiro Sayama
  • Jun Magome
  • Akira Hasegawa
  • Tomoki Ushiyama
  • Yoichi Iwami
  • Yoshio Tokunaga
Original Paper


This study focused on flood damage assessment for future floods under the impact of climate change. Four river basins of Southeast Asia were selected for the study. They included the Pampanga River Basin (PRB) in the Philippines, the Solo River Basin (SRB) in Indonesia, the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) in Cambodia and Vietnam, and the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) in Thailand. Flood damage to rice crops was assessed by flood damage functions considering flood depth and duration and the growth stage of rice plants. Flood characteristics such as flood depth, duration, and distribution were computed using the rainfall–runoff–inundation model to assess flood hazards under the present and future climatic conditions produced by MRI-AGCM3.2S. The damage assessment methodology for rice crops employed in this study was verified using data on past flood events. Then, flood damage assessment was conducted for both the present climate (1979–2003) and future climate (2075–2099) conditions, using MRI-AGCM3.2S precipitation datasets. Flood damage was assessed for worst cases chosen from each climate period and for floods of 50- and 100-year return periods with different rainfall patterns chosen from each climate scenario. The results of flood hazard and damage assessment show that the flood inundation area for a 100-year flood may increase in the future by 20% in PRB; by 66% in SRB; by 27% in LMRB; and by 27% in CPRB. The flood damage area of paddy fields for a 100-year flood may also increase in the future by 16% in PRB; by 55% in SRB; by 23% in LMRB; and by 13% in CPRB.


Rainfall runoff inundation model Flood hazard Damage assessment Climate change Southeast Asia 



This work was part of the SOUSEI program for risk information on climate change, which was funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT). The authors would like to thank the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority of the Philippines for providing IfSAR data for PRB and also thank all related counterpart institutes in each country for their support. The authors also would like to thank all colleagues at ICHARM for their support.


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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Badri Bhakta Shrestha
    • 1
    Email author
  • Edangodage Duminda Pradeep Perera
    • 2
  • Shun Kudo
    • 3
  • Mamoru Miyamoto
    • 1
  • Yusuke Yamazaki
    • 4
  • Daisuke Kuribayashi
    • 1
  • Hisaya Sawano
    • 1
  • Takahiro Sayama
    • 5
  • Jun Magome
    • 6
  • Akira Hasegawa
    • 7
  • Tomoki Ushiyama
    • 1
  • Yoichi Iwami
    • 8
  • Yoshio Tokunaga
    • 9
  1. 1.International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM)Public Works Research Institute (PWRI)TsukubaJapan
  2. 2.United Nations University, Institute for Water, Environment, and Health (UNU-INWEH)HamiltonCanada
  3. 3.National Institute for Land and Infrastructure ManagementTsukubaJapan
  4. 4.Erosion and Sediment Control Research GroupPublic Works Research Institute (PWRI)TsukubaJapan
  5. 5.Disaster Prevention Research InstituteKyoto UniversityKyotoJapan
  6. 6.International Research Centre for River Basin EnvironmentUniversity of YamanashiKofuJapan
  7. 7.Atmosphere and Ocean Research InstituteThe University of TokyoKashiwaJapan
  8. 8.Public Works DepartmentNagasaki Prefectural OfficeNagasakiJapan
  9. 9.Infrastructure Development InstituteTokyoJapan

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