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A three-dimensional numerical simulation approach to assess typhoon hazards in China coastal regions

  • Y. Liu
  • D. Chen
  • S. LiEmail author
  • P. W. Chan
  • Q. Zhang
Original Paper

Abstract

The paper introduces a three-dimensional numerical technique to assess typhoon hazards in China coastal regions based on a series of full-set numerical meteorology simulations. The boundary and initial conditions of the simulations are provided by adding pseudorandom fluctuations, which represent the localized, short-term meteorological variations, to synoptic fields, which show the large-scale, long-term meteorological patterns. A series of bogus typhoons are inserted into the initial field to provide the “seeds” from which the artificial typhoons could grow. The initial positions and intensities of the bogus typhoons are drawn from the random variables whose statistics agree with those derived from historical typhoon track data. In the present study, 1503 full-set meteorology simulations of artificial typhoons are conducted. The extreme wind speeds versus return periods calculated from the simulation results are compared to not only the specifications in the load code, but also the results from the previous studies. It is found that the extreme wind speeds in the Pearl-River Delta are, contradicting to the common expectation, higher than at the mainland side of the Taiwan Strait, which imply that the typhoons hitting Guangdong are, on average, more intense than those influencing Fujian. Given the possibility to improve the three-dimensional meteorology model in the future, the simulation technique proposed in the present study provides a novel direction to assess the meteorological hazards, including threads posted by typhoons.

Keywords

Extreme wind speeds Numerical simulation Typhoon hazards 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to express their gratitude toward following organizations for financially supporting the work described in the present paper, which includes National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51608302, 51579227).

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Y. Liu
    • 1
    • 2
  • D. Chen
    • 1
    • 2
  • S. Li
    • 1
    Email author
  • P. W. Chan
    • 3
  • Q. Zhang
    • 1
    • 4
  1. 1.Division of Ocean Science and Technology, Graduate School at ShenzhenTsinghua UniversityShenzhenChina
  2. 2.School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijingChina
  3. 3.Hong Kong ObservatoryKowloonHong Kong
  4. 4.Department of Civil EngineeringTsinghua UniversityBeijingChina

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