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A review of cyclone track shifts over the Great Lakes of North America: implications for storm surges

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Abstract

Cyclone tracks over the Great Lakes of North America shift, both East–West as well as North–South. The reasons for the shifts are various small-scale as well as large-scale processes associated with the general circulation of the atmosphere. The East–West shift has an approximate periodicity of 10 years, while the North–South shift occurs roughly with a periodicity of 20 years. The East–West shift is more important than the North–South shift. The amount of shift could be as much as a few hundred kilometers. The implication of these shifts for storm surges in the Great Lakes is considered.

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Fig. 1

(Reproduced with permission from Wikimedia Commons contributors 2014)

Fig. 2

(Reproduced with permission from NAV Canada 2017)

Fig. 3

(Reproduced with permission from NAV Canada 2017)

Fig. 4

(Reproduced with permission from Birchfield and Murty 1974)

Fig. 5

(Reproduced with permission from Birchfield and Murty 1974)

Fig. 6

(Reproduced with permission from Murty and Polavarapu 1975)

Fig. 7

(Reproduced with permission from Murty and Polavarapu 1975)

Fig. 8

(Reproduced with permission from Murty and Polavarapu 1975)

Fig. 9

(Reproduced with permission from Freeman and Murty 1972)

Fig. 10

(Reproduced with permission from Freeman and Murty 1972)

Fig. 11

(Reproduced with permission from Freeman and Murty 1972)

Fig. 12

(Reproduced with permission from Murty and Freeman 1973)

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Acknowledgements

Special thanks to all the authors for granting permission to reproduce their tables and figures.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil, Geological and Mining, Polytechnique Montreal, C.P. 6097, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montreal, QC, H3C 3A7, Canada

    Tew-Fik Mahdi

  2. Biomedical Science, University of Ottawa, Gendron Hall, 30 Marie Curie, Ottawa, ON, K1N 6N5, Canada

    Gaurav Jain

  3. Blyth Academy, 397-B Richmond Road, Ottawa, ON, K2A 0E9, Canada

    Shay Patel

  4. Accounting, University of Ottawa, Tabaret Hall, 550 Cumberland Street, Ottawa, ON, K1N6N5, Canada

    Aman Kaur Sidhu

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  1. Tew-Fik Mahdi
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  4. Aman Kaur Sidhu
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Correspondence to Tew-Fik Mahdi.

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Mahdi, TF., Jain, G., Patel, S. et al. A review of cyclone track shifts over the Great Lakes of North America: implications for storm surges. Nat Hazards 98, 119–135 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3429-2

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