Advertisement

Natural Hazards

, Volume 93, Issue 3, pp 1251–1275 | Cite as

Empirical seismic vulnerability, deterministic risk and monetary loss assessment in Fira (Santorini, Greece)

  • D. Kazantzidou-Firtinidou
  • I. Kassaras
  • A. Ganas
Original Paper

Abstract

A deterministic seismic risk and monetary loss model is presented for the capital of Santorini volcanic Island, the town of Fira, on a building block scale. A local seismic source of M5.6 inferred from a recent volcano unrest in 2011–2012, detailed seismic vulnerability of 435 buildings and site conditions deduced from free-field ambient noise measurements were combined toward assessing the EMS-98 damage grade and its probability to occur. The seismic scenario yielded no damage or slight damage for 84% of the buildings, 16% of the constructions are expected to present moderate-to-heavy damage, while the economic loss amounts to 4 million euros. Although the model predicts low damage and direct economic loss, interaction with the touristic business activities might produce cascade side effects for the economy of the island and consequently Greece’s GDP, an important part of which emanates from Santorini.

Keywords

Santorini EMS-98 HVSR Seismic risk Building typologies Seismic vulnerability Monetary loss 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The study has been realized in the framework of the project RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation of Risk), funded by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Program for research, technological development and demonstration under Grant Agreement No. 606888. The exposure model of Fira has been implemented in the RASOR platform (http://www.rasor-project.eu/rasor-case-studies-santorini/; http://www.rasor.eu/rasor/). The authors wish to deeply thank K. Makropoulos, G. Papadopoulos, N. Zorzos, P. Bozineki-Didoni, P. Pelekanos, A.Pomonis for discussions, S. Mourloukos for field work and C. Tsimi for helping in the spatial data analysis. We are indebted to the stuff of the Technical Services department of the Fira municipality for helping us in the field. We acknowledge support by the project “HELPOS - Hellenic System for Lithosphere Monitoring” (MIS 5002697).

References

  1. Barbat AH, Lagomarsino S, Pujades LG (2008) Vulnerability assessment of dwelling buildings, Chapter 6. In: Oliveira CS, Roca A, Goula X (eds) Assessing and managing earthquake risk. Springer, Berlin, pp 115–134Google Scholar
  2. Beresnev IA, Atkinson GM (1998) Stochastic finite-fault modeling of ground motions from the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake. I. Validation on rock sites. BSSA 88:1392–1401Google Scholar
  3. Beriatos E (2008) Uncontrolled urbanization, tourism development and landscape transformation in Greece. 44th ISOCARP Congress, Dalian, ChinaGoogle Scholar
  4. Biass S, Bonadonna C, di Traglia F, Pistolesi M, Rosi M, Lestuzzi P (2016a) Probabilistic evaluation of the physical impact of future tephra fallout events for the Island of Vulcano, Italy. Bull Vulcanol 78:37.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-016-1028-1
  5. Biass S, Falcone JL, Bonadonna C, Di Traglia F, Pistolesi M, Rosi M, Lestuzzi P (2016b) Great balls of fire: a probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard related to ballistics—A case study at La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island, Italy. J Vulcanol Geotherm Res 325:1–14CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Boore DM (1983) Stochastic simulation of high-frequency ground motions based on seismological models of the radiated spectra. BSSA 73:1865–1894Google Scholar
  7. Boore DM (2009) Comparing stochastic point-source and finite-source ground-motion simulations: SMSIM and EXSIM. Bull Seismol Soc Am 99(6):3202–3216CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bozineki-Didoni P (1999) Preservation and development of traditional settlements in Greece. The GNTO programme (1975–1995). The example of Oia-Santorini (personal communication)Google Scholar
  9. Brune JN (1970) Tectonic stress and spectra of seismic shear waves from earthquakes. J Geoph Res 75:4997–5009CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Brüstle A, Friederich W, Meier T, Gross C (2014) Focal mechanism and depth of the 1956 Amorgos twin earthquakes from waveform matching of analogue seismograms. Solid Earth 5:1027–1044CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Chouliaras G, Drakatos G, Makropoulos K, Melis NS (2012) Recent seismicity detection increase in the Santorini volcanic island complex. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:859–866CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Dekavallas K (2013) Earthquake resistant construction of Santorini 1956–1960. Lect Archit Dep NTUA 21(03):2013 (in Greek) Google Scholar
  13. Druitt TH, Edwards L, Mellors RM, Pyle DM, Sparks RSJ, Lanphere M, Davies M, Barriero B (1999). Santorini Volcano, Geol Soc London Mem 19Google Scholar
  14. EAK (2004) Greek Seismic Code, with additional articles. Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization, AthensGoogle Scholar
  15. Feuillet N (2013) The 2011–2012 unrest at Santorini rift: stress interaction between active faulting and volcanism. Geophys Res Lett 40:3532–3537CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Ganas A, Oikonomou IA, Tsimi C (2013) NOAfaults: a digital database for active faults in Greece, Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece. In: Proceedings of the 13th international congress, Chania, Sept. 2013, vol XLVII.  https://doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11079
  17. GeoMappApp database. Available online at: http://www.geomapapp.org/
  18. Giovinazzi S, Lagomarsino S (2004) A macroseismic method for the vulnerability assessment of buildings. In: Proceedings of the 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering 896, VancouverGoogle Scholar
  19. Goretti A, Di Pasquale G (2004) Building inspection and damage data for the 2002 Molise, Italy. Earthq Spectra 20(1):167–190CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Global Centroid Moment Tensor Project (GCMT). Available online at: http://www.globalcmt.org
  21. Grünthal G (ed) (1998) European Macroseismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98). Cahiers du Centre Européen de Géodynamique et de Séismologie 15, Centre Européen de Géodynamique et de Séismologie, LuxembourgGoogle Scholar
  22. Grünthal G, Wahlstrom R, Stromeyer D (2013) The SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEEC) for the time period 1900–2006 and its comparison to the European-Mediterranean Earthquake Catalogue (EMEC). J Seismolog 17:1339–1344CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hatzidimitriou P, Papazachos C, Kiratzi A, Theodulidis N (1993) Estimation of attenuation structure and local earthquake magnitude based on acceleration records in Greece. Tectonophysics 217:243–253CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Joyner WB, Boore DM (1988) Measurement, characterization, and prediction of strong ground motion. In: Earthquake engineering and soil dynamics II—Recent advances in ground-motion evaluation: proceedings of the specialty conference GTDiv/ASCE, Park City, Utah, pp 43–102Google Scholar
  25. Kahle HG, Straub C, Reilinger R, McClusky S, King R, Hurst K, Veis G, Kastens K, Cross P (1998) The strain rate fields in the eastern Mediterranean region, estimated by repeated GPS measurements. Tectonophysics 294:237–252CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Kappos A, Panagopoulos G, Panagiotopoulos C, Penelis G (2006) A hybrid method for the vulnerability assessment of R/C and URM buildings. Bull Earthquake Eng 4:391–413CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Kappos A, Panagopoulos G, Penelis G (2008) Development of a seismic damage and loss scenario for contemporary and historical buildings in Thessaloniki, Greece. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 28(10–11):836–850CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Kassaras I, Kalantoni D, Benetatos C, Kaviris G, Michalaki K, Sakellariou N, Makropoulos K (2015) Seismic damage scenarios in Lefkas old town (W. Greece). Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9789-z
  29. Kaviris G, Papadimitriou P, Kravvariti PH, Kapetanidis V, Karakonstantis A, Voulgaris N, Makropoulos K (2015) A detailed seismic anisotropy study during the 2011–2012 unrest period in the Santorini Volcanic Complex. Phys Earth Planet Inter 238:51–88CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Kohno K, Ohmachi T (1998) Ground-motion characteristics estimated from spectral ratio between horizontal and vertical components of microtremor. BSSA 88(1):228–241Google Scholar
  31. Kolaitis A, Papadimiriou P, Kassaras I Makropoulos K (2007) Seismic observations with broadband instruments at Santorini volcano. Bull Geol Soc Greece XXXVII:1150–1161Google Scholar
  32. Ktenidou OJ, Gélis C, Bonilla LF (2015) A study on the variability of kappa (κ) in a borehole: implications of the computation process. BSSA.  https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120093
  33. Makropoulos K, Kaviris G, Kouskouna V (2012) An updated and extended earthquake catalogue for Greece and adjacent areas since 1900. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:1425–1430CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Margaris BN, Boore DM (1998) Determination of Δσ and ω 2 from response spectra of large earthquakes in Greece. BSSA 88(1):170–182Google Scholar
  35. Michel C, Fäh D, Lestuzzi P, Hannewald P, Husen S (2017) Probabilistic mechanics-based loss scenarios for school buildings in Basel. Bull Earthq Eng 15(4):1471–1496.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-0025-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Milutinovic Z, Trendafilloski G (2003) An advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios with applications to different European towns. ReportWP4: vulnerability of current buildings, Risk-UE. European Commission, Brussels.  https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-3608-8_23
  37. Musson RMW, Grünthal G, Stucchi M (2010) The comparison of macroseismic intensity scales. J Seismol 14:413–428CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Nakamura Y (1989) A method for dynamic characteristics estimation of subsurface using microtremor on the ground surface. QR Railw Tech Res Inst 30:25–33Google Scholar
  39. New Greek Seismic Code (NEAK) (1994) Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization, Athens, GreeceGoogle Scholar
  40. Newhall CG (2000) Volcano warnings. In: Sigurdsson H, Houghton BF, Ballard RD (eds) Encyclopaedia of volcanoes. Academic Press, San Diego, pp 1185–1197Google Scholar
  41. Newman AV, Stiros S, Feng L, Moschas F, Saltogianni V, Jiang Y, Papazachos C, Panagiotopoulos D, Karagianni E, Vamvakaris D (2012) Recent geodetic unrest at Santorini Caldera, Greece. Geophys Res Lett.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051286 Google Scholar
  42. Nomikou P, Druitt TH, Hübscher C, Mather TA, Paulatto M, Kalnins LM, Kelfoun K, Papanikolaou D, Bejelou K, Lampridou D, Pyle DM, Carey S, Watts AB, Weiß B, Parks MM (2016) Post-eruptive flooding of Santorini caldera and implications for tsunami generation. Nat Commun.  https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13332 Google Scholar
  43. Nomikou P, Hübscher C, Papanikolaou D, Farangitakis GP, Ruhnau M, Lampridou D (2017) Expanding extension, subsidence and lateral segmentation within the Santorini—Amorgos basins during Quaternary: Implications for the 1956 Amorgos events, central—south Aegean Sea, Greece. Tectonophysics 722:138–153CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Okal EA, Synolakis CE, Uslu B, Kalligeris N, Voukouvalas E (2009) The 1956 earthquake and tsunami in Amorgos, Greece. Geophys J Int 178:1533–1554CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Papadimitriou P, Kapetanidis V, Karakonstantis A, Kaviris G, Voulgaris N, Makropoulos K (2015) The Santorini Volcanic Complex: a detailed multi-parameter seismological approach with emphasis on the 2011–2012 unrest period. J Geodyn 8:32–57.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2014.12.004
  46. Papadimitriou P, Kassaras I, Kaviris G, Tselentis GA, Voulgaris N, Lekkas E, Chouliaras G, Evangelidis Ch, Pavlou K, Kapetanidis V, Karakonstantis A, Kazantzidou-Firtinidou D, Fountoulakis I, Millas Ch, Spingos I, Aspiotis Th, Moumoulidou A, Em Skourtsos, Antoniou V, Em Andreadakis, Sp Mavroulis, Kleanthi M (2018) The 12th June 2017 Mw = 6.3 Lesvos earthquake from detailed seismological observations. J Geodyn 115:23–42CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Papadopoulos GA, Pavlides SB (1992) The large 1956 earthquake in the South Aegean: Macroseismic field configuration, faulting, and neotectonics of Amorgos Island. Earth Planet Sci Lett 113:383–396CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Papazachos BC, Comninakis PE (1971) Geophysical and tectonic features of the Aegean Arc. JGR 76(35):8517–8533CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Papazachos BC, Panagiotopoulos D (1993) Normal faults associated with volcanic activity and deep rupture zones in the southern Aegean volcanic arc. Tectonophysics 220:301–308CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Papazachos B, Papazachou C (2003) The earthquakes of Greece, 3rd edn. Ziti Publications, ThessalonikiGoogle Scholar
  51. Papoutsis I, Papanikolaou M, Floyd K, Ji H, Kontoes C, Paradissis D, Zacharis V (2013) Mapping inflation at Santorini volcano, Greece, using GPS and InSAR. Geophys Res Lett 40:267–272.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL054137
  52. Petersen ADJ (2004) A geological and petrological study of the dikes in the Megalo Vouno volcano complex, Santorini. Ph.D. Thesis, Copenhagen UniversityGoogle Scholar
  53. Rodríguez VHS, Midorikawa S (2003) Comparison of spectral ratio techniques for estimation of site effects using microtremor data and earthquake motions recorded at the surface and in boreholes. Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 32:1691–1714CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. SERTIT (SErvice Régional de Traitement d’Image et de Télédétection) http://sertit.u-strasbg.fr/index_en.htm
  55. SESAME (2005) Guidelines for the implementation of the H/V spectral ratio technique on ambient vibrations–measurements, processing and interpretations. SESAME European research project EVG1-CT-2000–00026, deliverable D23.12Google Scholar
  56. Stasinopoulos T (2002) Santorini “The blue drinkable volcano”. Notes for 1st year of Department of Architecture, National Technical University of Athens, GreeceGoogle Scholar
  57. Statistical Authority of Greece (EL.STAT.) (2011) Buildings census. Available online at: http://www.statistics.gr/el/2011-census-pop-hous
  58. Tselentis G, Danciu L (2008) Empirical relationships between modified Mercalli intensity and engineering ground-motion parameters in Greece. BSSA 98(4):1863–1875Google Scholar
  59. Vallianatos F, Michas G, Papadakis G, Tzanis A (2013) Evidence of nonextensivity in the seismicity observed during the 2011–2012 unrest at the Santorini Volcanic Complex, Greece. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:177–185CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Wang J (1993) Seismic design of tunnels—a simple state-of-the-art design approach. Parsons Brinckerhoff, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  61. Wells DL, Coppersmith KJ (1994) New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement. BSSA 84(4):974–1002Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National and Kapodistrian University of AthensAthensGreece
  2. 2.National Observatory of AthensAthensGreece

Personalised recommendations