Natural Hazards

, Volume 92, Issue 2, pp 971–993 | Cite as

Riverine flood assessment in Jhang district in connection with ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall over Upper Indus Basin for 2010

  • Bushra Khalid
  • Bueh Cholaw
  • Débora Souza Alvim
  • Shumaila Javeed
  • Junaid Aziz Khan
  • Muhammad Asif Javed
  • Azmat Hayat Khan
Original Paper


Pakistan has experienced severe floods over the past decades due to climate variability. Among all the floods, the flood of 2010 was the worst in history. This study focuses on the assessment of (1) riverine flooding in the district Jhang (where Jhelum and Chenab rivers join, and the district was severely flood affected) and (2) south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns and anomalies considering the case of 2010 flood in Pakistan. The land use/cover change has been analyzed by using Landsat TM 30 m resolution satellite imageries for supervised classification, and three instances have been compared, i.e., pre-flooding, flooding, and post-flooding. The water flow accumulation, drainage density and pattern, and river catchment areas have been calculated by using Shutter Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model 90 m resolution. The standard deviation of south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns, anomalies and normal (1979–2008) has been calculated for July, August, and September by using rainfall data set of Era interim (0.75° × 0.75° resolution). El Niño Southern Oscillation has also been considered for its role in prevailing rainfall anomalies during the year 2010 over Upper Indus Basin region. Results show the considerable changing of land cover during the three instances in the Jhang district and water content in the rivers. Abnormal rainfall patterns over Upper Indus Basin region prevailed during summer monsoon months in the year 2010 and 2011. The El Niño (2009–2010) and its rapid phase transition to La Niña (2011–2012) may be the cause of severity and disturbances in rainfall patterns during the year 2010. The Geographical Information System techniques and model based simulated climate data sets have been used in this study which can be helpful in developing a monitoring tool for flood management.


Flooding Riverine ENSO Monsoon Rainfall Land cover 


Author’s contributions

BK and JAK designed research and maintained the pattern; DSA performed climatic analysis; JAK performed the remote sensing analysis; BK interpreted the results of climatic and remote sensing analysis and prepared the manuscript; SJ and MAJ contributed with expert guidance on technical aspects; BC supervised and gave permission to conduct the research; SJ, MAJ and AHK revised and improved the manuscript.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this study.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.Earth System PhysicsThe Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical PhysicsTriesteItaly
  3. 3.Department of Environmental ScienceInternational Islamic UniversityIslamabadPakistan
  4. 4.International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria
  5. 5.Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate StudiesNational Institute for Space ResearchCachoeira PaulistaBrazil
  6. 6.Department of MathematicsCOMSATS Institute of Information TechnologyIslamabadPakistan
  7. 7.Institute of Geographical Information System (IGIS)National University of Science and Technology (NUST)IslamabadPakistan
  8. 8.Department of HumanitiesCOMSATS Institute of Information TechnologyIslamabadPakistan
  9. 9.Regional Meteorological CenterPakistan Meteorological DepartmentQuettaPakistan

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