Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

  • Victor Ongoma
  • Haishan Chen
  • Chujie Gao
  • Aston Matwai Nyongesa
  • Francis Polong
Original Paper

Abstract

This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall (temperature) events in the twenty-first century based on 18 (24)-member multimodel simulations of models participating in phase 5 of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The study employed extreme indices defined by the WMO’s Experts Team on Climate Change Detection Indices, under two radiative forcing scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two 30-year time periods, mid- (2021–2050) and end (2071–2100) of the twenty-first century, are considered for investigation of extremes, relative to the baseline period (1961–1990). Mann–Kendall test statistic and Sen’s slope estimator are used to investigate trend. Temperature shows a remarkable increase with an increase in radiative forcing. A sharp augmentation in temperature is projected towards the end of the twenty-first century. There will be almost zero cool days and cold nights by the end of the century. Very wet and extremely very wet days increase, especially over Uganda and western Kenya. Variation in maximum 1-day precipitation (R × 1 day) and maximum 5-day precipitation amount shows a remarkable increase in variance towards the end of the twenty-first century. Although the results are based on relatively coarse resolution data, they give likely conditions that can be utilized in long-term planning and be relied on in advanced studies.

Keywords

Climate change Climate extremes CMIP5 Temperature Rainfall ETCCDI East Africa 

References

  1. Adhikari U, Nejadhashemi AP, Woznicki SA (2015) Climate change and eastern Africa: a review of impact on major crops. Food Energy Secur 4:110–132. https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.61 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Kumar KR, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290 Google Scholar
  3. Behera SK, Luo J-J, Masson S, Delecluse P, Gualdi S, Navarra A, Yamagata T (2005) Paramount impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the East African short rains: a CGCM study. J Climate 18:4514–4530. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3541.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Black E, Slingo JM, Sperber KR (2003) An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST. Mon Weather Rev 131:74–94. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0074:AOSOTR>2.0.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Camberlin P, Philippon N (2002) The East African March–May rainy season: associated atmospheric dynamics and predictability over the 1968–97 period. J Climate 15:1002–1019. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)0151002:TEAMMR.2.0.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Clark CO, Webster PJ, Cole JE (2003) Interdecadal variability of the relationship between the Indian Ocean zonal mode and East African coastal rainfall anomalies. J Climate 16:548–554. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0548:IVOTRB>2.0.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. da Silva RM, Santos CAG, Moreira M, Corte-Real J, Silva VCL, Medeiros IC (2015) Rainfall and river flow trends using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator statistical tests in the Cobres River basin. Nat Hazards 77:1205–1221. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1644-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Donat M, Alexander LV, Yang H, Durre I, Vose R, Dunn RJH, Willett KM, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Caesar J, Hewitson B, Jack C, Klein Tank AMG, Kruger AC, Marengo J, Peterson TC, Renom M, Oria Rojas C, Rusticucci M, Salinger J, Elrayah AS, Sekele SS, Srivastava AK, Trewin B, Villarroel C, Vincent LA, Zhai P, Zhang X, Kitching S (2013) Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: the HadEX2 dataset. J Geophys Res 118:2098–2118. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50150 Google Scholar
  9. Dunne JP, Stouffer RJ, John JG (2013) Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming. Nat Clim Chang 3:563–566. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1827 Google Scholar
  10. Easterling DR, Evans JL, Groisman PY, Karl TR, Kunkel KE, Ambenje P (2000) Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: a brief review. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:417–425. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0417:OVATIE>2.3.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Fallmann J, Wagner S, Emeis S (2017) High resolution climate projections to assess the future vulnerability of European urban areas to climatological extreme events. Theor Appl Climatol 127:667–683. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1658-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Fischer EM, Knutti R (2014) Detection of spatially aggregated changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. Geophys Res Lett 41:547–554. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058499 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Gitau W (2011) Diagnosis and predictability of intraseasonal characteristics of wet and dry spells over equatorial East Africa. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Nairobi, KenyaGoogle Scholar
  14. Guo X, Huang J, Luo Y, Zhao Z, Xu Y (2016) Projection of precipitation extremes for eight global warming targets by 17 CMIP5 models. Nat Hazards 84:2299–2319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2553-0 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Hastings DA, Dunbar PK (1999) Global Land One-kilometer Base Elevation (GLOBE) Digital elevation model, documentation, volume 1.0. Key to Geophysical Records Documentation (KGRD) 34. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Geophysical Data Center, 325 Broadway, Boulder, Colorado 80303, USA. https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NOAA/.NGDC/.GLOBE/index.html?Set-Language=en .Accessed 10 Jan 2016
  16. IPCC (2007a) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 976Google Scholar
  17. IPCC (2007b) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 996Google Scholar
  18. IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. In: Field CB et al (eds) A special report of working groups I and II of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 582Google Scholar
  19. IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  20. Jupp TE, Cox PM, Rammig A, Thonicke K, Lucht W, Cramer W (2010) Development of probability density functions for future South American rainfall. New Phytol 187:682–693. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03368.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Karl TR, Nicholls N, Ghazi A (1999) CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes workshop summary. In: Karl TR, Nicholls N, Ghazi A (eds) Weather and climate extremes. Springer, Netherlands, pp 3–7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Kendall MG (1948) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffen and Company, London, p 160. http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/3478976?q&sort=holdings+desc&_=1509626260061&versionId=21147484
  23. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW (2005) Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations. J Climate 18:1156–1173. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3320.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Wehner M (2013) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Clim Chang 119:345–357. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Kiktev D, Sexton DMH, Alexander L, Folland CK (2003) Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes. J Clim 16:3560–3571. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3560:COMAOT>2.0.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. King’uyu SM, Ogallo LA, Anyamba EK (2000) Recent trends of minimum and maximum surface temperatures over Eastern Africa. J Clim 13:2876–2886. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2876:RTOMAM>2.0.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. King’uyu S, Kilavi M, Omeny P, Muigai E, Njogu A (2011) Climate change indices for Kenya. J Meteorol Relat Sci 5:49–55Google Scholar
  28. Klein Tank AMG, Zwiers FW, Zhang X (2009) Guidelines on analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation. WCDMP-No. 72, WMO-TD No. 1500, p 56. www.wcrpclimate.org/documents/WCDMP_TD_1500.pdf
  29. Lelieveld J, Proestos Y, Hadjinicolaou P, Tanarhte M, Tyrlis E, Zittis G (2016) Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century. Clim Change 137:245–260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Li C-J, Chai Y-Q, Yang L-S, Li H-R (2016) Spatio-temporal distribution of flood disasters and analysis of influencing factors in Africa. Nat Hazards 82:721–731. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2181-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Lyon B (2014) Seasonal drought in greater horn of Africa and its recent increase during the March–May long rains. J Clim 27:7953–7975. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00459.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Lyon B, Dewitt DG (2012) A recent and abrupt decline in the East African long rains. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050337 Google Scholar
  33. Maidment RI, Allan RP, Black E (2015) Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065765 Google Scholar
  34. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Meehl GA, Karl T, Easterling DR, Changnon S, Pielke R Jr, Changnon D, Evans J, Groisman PY, Knutson TR, Kunkel KE, Mearns LO, Parmesan C, Pulwarty R, Root T, Sylves RT, Whetton P, Zwiers F (2000) An introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events: observations, socioeconomic impacts, terrestrial ecological impacts, and model projections. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:413–416. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0413:AITTIE>2.3.CO;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, Van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Nicholson SE (2016) An analysis of recent rainfall conditions in eastern Africa. Int J Climatol 36:526–532. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4358 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Ogallo LJ (1988) Relationships between seasonal rainfall in East Africa and the Southern Oscillation. J Climatol 8:31–43. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370080104 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Ogwang BA (2015) Simulation and prediction of the East African climate using regional climate model (RegCM4). Ph.D. Thesis, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, ChinaGoogle Scholar
  40. Ogwang BA, Chen H, Li X, Gao C (2014) The influence of topography on East African October to December climate: sensitivity experiments with RegCM4. Adv Meteorol. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/143917 Google Scholar
  41. Omondi PA, Awange JL, Forootan E, Ogallo LA, Barakiza R, Girmaw GB, Fesseha I, Kululetera V, Kilembe C, Mbati MM, Kilavi M, King’uyu SM, Omeny PA, Njogu A, Badr EM, Musa TA, Muchiri P, Bamanya D, Komutunga E (2014) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Greater Horn of Africa region from 1961 to 2010. Int J Climatol 34:1262–1277. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3763 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Omumbo JA, Lyon B, Waweru SM, Connor SJ, Thomson MC (2011) Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate. Malar J 10:12. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-10-12 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Ongoma V, Chen H (2017) Temporal and spatial variability of temperature and precipitation over East Africa from 1951 to 2010. Meteorol Atmos Phys 129:131–144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0462-0 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Ongoma V, Chen H, Omony GW (2016a) Variability of extreme weather events over East Africa, a case study of rainfall in Kenya and Uganda. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1973-9 Google Scholar
  45. Ongoma V, Chen H, Gao C (2016b) Evaluation of CMIP5 GCMs 20th century climate simulations for the equatorial East Africa rainfall based on gridded data. Theor Appl Climatol (under review)Google Scholar
  46. Ongoma V, Chen H, Gao C, Sagero PO (2017) Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2246-y Google Scholar
  47. Prinz R, Nicholson LI, Mölg T, Gurgiser W, Kaser G (2016) Climatic controls and climate proxy potential of Lewis Glacier, Mt. Kenya. Cryosphere 10:133–148. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-133-2016 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Revadekar JV, Kothawale DR, Patwardhan SK, Pant GB, Rupa Kumar K (2012) About the observed and future changes in temperature extremes over India. Nat Hazards 60:1133–1155. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9895-4 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Rowell DP, Booth BBB, Nicholson SE, Good P (2015) Reconciling past and future rainfall trends over East Africa. J Clim 28:9768–9788. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0140.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Russo S, Sterl A (2011) Global changes in indices describing moderate temperature extremes from the daily output of a climate model. J Geophys Res 116:D03104. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014727 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Sarofim MC, Saha S, Hawkins MD, Mills DM, Hess J, Horton R, Kinney P, Schwartz J, St. Juliana A (2016) Ch. 2: temperature-related death and illness. The impacts of climate change on human health in the United States: a scientific assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 43–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.7930/J0MG7MDX
  52. Schreck CJ, Semazzi FHM (2004) Variability of the recent climate of eastern Africa. Int J Climatol 24:681–701. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1019 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat As 63:1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.2307/2285891 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Seneviratne SI, Nicholls N, Easterling D, Goodess CM, Kanae S, Kossin J, Luo Y, Marengo J, McInnes K, Rahimi M, Reichstein M, Sorteberg A, Vera C, Zhang X (2012) Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of working groups I and II of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 109–230Google Scholar
  55. Shongwe ME, van Oldenborgh GJ, van den Hurk B, van Aalst M (2011) Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part II: East Africa. J Clim 24:3718–3733. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI2883.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Bronaugh D (2013a) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:1716–1733. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Bronaugh D (2013b) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Part 2: future projections. J Geophys Res 118:2473–2493. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50188 Google Scholar
  58. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster JM, Meehl GA (2006) Going to the extremes: an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Clim Change 79:185–211. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Tomozeiu R, Agrillo G, Cacciamani C, Pavan V (2014) Statistically downscaled climate change projections of surface temperature over Northern Italy for the periods 2021–2050 and 2070–2099. Nat Hazards 72:143–168. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0552-y CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. WMO (2009) Report of the world climate conference-3. World Meteorological Organization, p 80. http://library.wmo.int/opac/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=4043#.U9f9NfldVuI
  62. Yang W, Seager R, Cane MA, Lyon B (2014) The East African long rains in observations and models. J Clim 27:7185–7202. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00447.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Yang W, Seager R, Cane MA, Lyon B (2015) The annual cycle of East African precipitation. J Clim 28:2385–2404. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00484.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Yeh C-F, Wang J, Yeh H-F, Lee C-H (2015) Spatial and temporal streamflow trends in northern Taiwan. Water 7:634–651. https://doi.org/10.3390/w7020634 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Zhang X, Alexander L, Hegerl GC, Jones P, Klein Tank A, Peterson TC, Trewin B, Zwiers FW (2011) Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Clim Change 2:851–870. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Zhou B, Wen QH, Xu Y, Song L, Zhang X (2014) Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in China by the CMIP5 multimodel ensembles. J Clim 27:6591–6611. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00761.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/International Joint Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)NanjingChina
  2. 2.Department of MeteorologySouth Eastern Kenya UniversityKituiKenya
  3. 3.Kenya Industrial Research and Development InstituteNairobiKenya

Personalised recommendations